IRISH ST LEGER TRENDS 2014

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The Palmerstown House Estate St Leger takes place at the Curragh this Sunday, 14th September. Unlike the other four Irish Classics this race is open to older horses and since 1990 only one horse aged 3 has won the race, that was the great Vinnie Roe, who went on to win the race 3 more times.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 0-4-11

4yo: 3-5-34

5yo: 3-4-19

6yo+: 5-5-25

horses aged 3 or 4 have combined record: 3-9-45

horses aged 5+ have combined record: 8-9-44

horses aged 5 or above have won 7 of the last 10 runnings from less than 50% of total runners.

The only 3yo winner in past 20 years was Vinnie Roe who won the race for 4 years running.



Gender

Fillies/mares (2-2-12) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 12 runners. Both female winners were trained in Ireland and had won the Vintage Crop Stakes that season.



Breeding

9 of 11 winners sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.7F (2 exceptions were out of a mare that had won a group race over 1M 4F+)

6 of last 7 winners (1 of the 2 to dead heat in 2011) were by Sadler’s Wells or a son/grandson of Sadler’s Wells



Recent/Past Form

10 of 11 winners contested a group or listed race over 1M 4F+ last time (exception close 2nd in Ebor Handicap)

11 of 11 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

10 of 11 winners posted an RPR of 111+ last time (exceptions posted career high RPR of 107)

10 of 11 winners had won a race that year (exceptions was 2nd on both starts that year)

6 of 11 winners had previously won at the Curragh (4 exceptions were having their first run here and other was 2nd over CD on only previous course start)

3 of 6 course winners had won over CD (3 others had finished 2nd over CD)

11 of 11 winners had won over 1M 5F or further

8 of 11 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions were listed winners and other was having first run in a group race after finishing head 2nd in Ebor last time)

6 of 11 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (5 exceptions were having first run in a group 1)



Other Races

Highest finisher from previous year to return: 13314265 (2-3-8)

Highest placed finisher from Saval Beg to run in this: 13151247 (3-2-8)

Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Leading Light): 111461 (4-0-6)

Ballyroan Stakes winner (Eye Of The Storm): 134426 (1-2-6)

Ascot Gold Cup winner (Leading Light): 2184 (1-1-4)

Princess Of Wales' Stakes winner (Cavalryman): 51 (1-0-2)

Irish St Leger Trial winner (Leading Light): 51465 (1-0-5)

Goodwood Cup winner (Cavalryman): 23 (0-2-2)

Previous St Leger winner (Leading Light): 2 (0-1-1)

Ormonde Stakes winner (Brown Panther): 3 (0-1-1)

Lonsdale Cup winner (Pale Mimosa): 3 (0-1-1)

Challenge Stakes winner (Pale Mimosa): 6425 (0-1-4)

4 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Curragh Cup, finishing 1123

4 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Vintage Crop Stakes, finishing 1111

3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Saval Beg, finishing 212

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish St Leger Trial last time, finishing 12

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Ballyroan Stakes last time, finishing 21

2 of 11 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 16

2 of 11 winner ran in Yorkshire Cup, finishing 41

2 of 11 winners ran in the previous year's Melbourne Cup, finishing 47

2 of 11 winners ran in the previous season's Arc, finishing 50



Trainers

Irish-trained runners: 7-11-58

British-trained runners: 4-7-31

Dermot Weld (2-2-8) trained Vinnie Roe to win this race 4 times between 2001 & 2004 and he saddled Voleuse De Couers to win it last year.

Aidan O’Brien (2-5-18) has also trained the winner twice since 2004.

Saeed Bin Suroor (0-2-3) has gained a win and 4 places from 6 runners in since 1999.

Mick Halford (0-1-2) & Tom Dascombe (0-1-1) saddled the 2nd & 3rd respectively in 2012.



Price

8 of 11 winners came from first 3 in the betting

The last 2 winners have been priced 9/1 & 16/2, however 8 of 11 winners since 2004 were priced 6/1 or shorter

Favourites (4-5-12) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 2.22.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7

- Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.7F

- Finished in first 2 in a group or listed race over 1M4F+ last time out

- Posted an RPR of 111+ last time

- Course winner (or having first course start)

- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over CD

- Won over 1M 5F or further

- Has won a group race

- Previously finished in first 4 in a group 1 (or having first run in a group 1)

- Finished in first 2 in Prix Kergolay, Ballyroan, St Leger Trial or at Ebor Meeting last time

- Irish-trained that finished in first 2 in Saval Beg, Vintage Crop and/or Curragh Cup

- Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Dermot Weld or in Great Britain

- First 3 in the betting.