PRIX DU MOULIN TRENDS 2014

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The Qatar Prix du Moulin takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 14th September and is one of the premier mile races run in Europe each year. It has been won by some top class milers since 2000, including Rock Of Gibraltar, Goldikova, Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 4-5-41

4yo: 4-7-26

5yo: 2-2-10

6yo+: 0-1-5

8 of 10 winners were aged 3 or 4, one exception was Starcraft who was bred in NZ and as a result was born in October, would have been a 4yo if born 80 days later.



Gender

Fillies & mares (4-2-19) have won 4 of 10 runnings from 23.2% total runners, 4 of the 5 winning females since 2000 were 3yos.

Record of females priced shorter than 16/1: 17508521R316 (4-1-13)

Record of 3yo fillies at 16/1 or shorter: 171051R36 (3-0-9)



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 4 or 5 times that season

9 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 117+ on one of their last 2 starts

5 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (4 others having first course start & other was 2nd on both runs here)

5 of 6 winners that had run at Longchamp won or placed on all starts (exception had 3 wins, 1 place and a 4th in group 1 from 5 runs here)

9 of 10 winners had won over a mile (exception was 4th in group 1 on only previous mile start)

9 of 10 winners had won a group race over a mile

6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (4 exceptions had won a group 2 or 3)

10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a group 1

7 of 10 winners ran at Deauville last time (3 exceptions had last run in Britain)



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from Prix Jacques Le Marois: 5416514512 (3-1-10)

Prix Rothschild winner (Esoterique): 11 (2-0-2)

Prix Jean Prat winner (Charm Spirit): 2 (0-1-1)

Queen Anne Stakes winner (Toronado): 52 (0-1-2)

Prix Djebel winner (Charm Spirit): 52 (0-1-2)

Prix du Muguet winner (Sommerabend): 93 (0-1-2)

Prix Paul de Moussac winner (Charm Spirit): 643 (0-1-3)

Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner (Karakontie): 032 (0-1-3)

Prix de Lieurey winner (Bawina): 63 (0-0-2)

French 2000 Guineas winner (Karakontie): 047575 (0-0-6)

4 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Jacque Le Marois last time, finishing 1244

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Queen Anne, finishing 33

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Messidor, finishing 11

3 of 3 winning 3yo fillies ran in French 1000 Guineas, finishing 212

2 of 3 winning 3yo fillies ran in Prix de Diane, finishing 132

2 of 3 winning 3yo fillies ran in Prix de Louvre, finishing 12

2 of 3 winning 3yo fillies ran in Prix de la Grotte, finishing 11

2 of 3 winning 3yo fillies ran in Prix Rothschild last time, finishing 11



Trainers

French-trained runners: 6-6-46

British-trained runners: 4-7-21

Irish-trained runners: 0-3-10

Other: 0-0-5

Freddie Head (2-1-5) has trained 2 winners (2012 & 2007, both fillies) and 2 thirds from 5 runners, the exception was a pacemaker for Goldikova.

Andre Fabre (1-2-8) won the race in 2003 & 2004, both times with 3yo fillies.

Jonathan Pease (1-0-1) won this with Maxios last year.

Richard Hannon (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners get placed in past 10 years.

John Gosden (0-1-1) has seen his one runner get placed, in 2009.



Draw (only counting fields of 7 or more)

Record of horses drawn 1 to 4: 7-4-32

Record of horses drawn 5 to 8: 1-10-31

Record of horses drawn 9 or higher: 0-1-9

Low draws are certainly advantageous with the last 7 winners (in fields of 7 or more) coming from the bottom 4 stalls.



Price

9 of 10 winners (last 9) came from first 4 in the betting

8 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings, showing a level stakes loss of 2.96.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 3 or 4 (3yo fillies do particularly well)

- Run 4 or 5 times this season & won 1 of last 2 starts

- Posted an RPR of 117+ in one or both of last 2 starts

- Won a group race over a mile

- Previously finished in first 3 in a group 1

- Course winner (or having first run at Longchamp)

- Never finished out of the places at Longchamp

- 3yo filly that finished in first 3 in both Prix de Diane & French 1000 Guineas or

- Colt aged 4+ that finished in first 3 in Queen Anne and/or Prix Messidor

- Ran at Deauville last time (in Prix Jacque Le Marois or Rothschild)

- Trained by Freddie Head or in Britain

- Drawn 1 to 4

- From first 4 in the betting (no bigger than 7/1).