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    Default PRIX VERMEILLE TRENDS 2014

    The Qatar Prix Vermeille is one of two group 1’s taking place at Longchamp on Sunday 14th September. In 2004 & 2005 the race was restricted to 3 and 4 year olds. Now it is for any female aged 3 or older. Zarkava & Treve both won this en route to winning the Arc in 2008 & 2013 while the 2012 third, Solemia, also went on to Arc glory later that year.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)

    3yo: 7-10-70

    4yo: 3-7-30

    5yo+: 0-1-5

    All 10 winners have been aged 3 or 4, though they have represented over 95% of the total runners and their number of successes has been proportional to their number of runners.

    Breeding

    8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that had won multiple group 1's

    7 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 10.8F+

    6 of 10 winners were sired by horse that finished in first 3 in Epsom Derby

    Sinndar progeny: 1301 (2-0-4)

    Recent/Past Form

    8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 others beaten in a Deauville group race)

    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

    8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 115+ last time out (2 exceptions posted an RPR of 107+)

    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that year

    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+

    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a group race

    9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1

    Other Races

    Previous season's winner (Treve): 5 (0-0-1)

    Yorkshire Oaks winner (Tapestry): 1d11 (2-0-3)

    Prix Saint-Alary winner (Vazira): 13666 (1-1-5)

    Nassau Stakes winner (Sultanina): 1 (1-0-1)

    Previous year's Prix Joubert winner (Siljan's Saga): 23 (0-2-2)

    Prix Corrida winner (Siljan's Saga): 23 (0-2-2)

    Prix de Malleret winner (Dolniya): 2743d24 (0-2-6)

    Prix de la Pepiniere winner (Baltic Baroness): 2 (0-1-1)

    Musidora Stakes winner (Madame Chiang): 3 (0-1-1)

    5 of 7 winners aged 3 (last 5) ran in Prix de Diane, finishing 21121

    3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in Prix de la Cascade as 2yos, finishing 311

    2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in Prix Marcel Boussac, finishing 15

    2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in Prix Allez France, finishing 03

    2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in Yorkshire Oaks last time, finishing 11

    Trainers

    French-trained runners: 9-13-79

    British-trained runners: 1-4-12

    German-trained runners: 0-1-7

    Irish-trained runners: 0-0-7

    Alain De Royer-Dupre (4-2-10) has a fine record in this race, gaining 4 wins and 2 places from 10 runners. His three 3yo winners all finished in first 2 in French or Irish Oaks.

    Criquette Head Maarek (1-0-1) trained Treve to win this last year.

    John Gosden (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame.

    Carlos Laffon-Parias (0-1-2) saddled Solemia to finish 3rd in 2012 before winning the Arc.

    Andre Fabre (0-4-21) has saddled several fancied runners but from 21 runners in last 10 years he has gained no winners and just 4 places, and you have to go back to 1993 for Fabre’s last winner of this. Aidan O’Brien (0-0-6) has seen his last 6 runners all finish unplaced.

    Price

    8 of 10 winners were sent off favourite

    Favourites (8-0-10) show a level stakes profit of 9.21.


    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Won a group race last time (finished no worse than 3rd)

    - Posted an RPR of 115+ last time

    - Run 2 to 5 times in 2014

    - Previously won over 1M 2F+

    - Finished in first 2 in a group 1

    - Course winner

    - A 3yo that finished in first 2 in the Prix de Diane

    - A 3yo that finished in first 3 in Prix De La Cascade and/or Marcel Boussac as a 2yo

    - Aged 4+ that ran in Yorkshire Oaks and/or Prix Allez France this year

    - Trained by Alain De Royer-Dupre

    - Favourite does well.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (11th September 2014) 


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