PRIX VERMEILLE TRENDS 2014

[ganjaman2]

The Qatar Prix Vermeille is one of two group 1’s taking place at Longchamp on Sunday 14th September. In 2004 & 2005 the race was restricted to 3 and 4 year olds. Now it is for any female aged 3 or older. Zarkava & Treve both won this en route to winning the Arc in 2008 & 2013 while the 2012 third, Solemia, also went on to Arc glory later that year.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 7-10-70

4yo: 3-7-30

5yo+: 0-1-5

All 10 winners have been aged 3 or 4, though they have represented over 95% of the total runners and their number of successes has been proportional to their number of runners.

Breeding

8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that had won multiple group 1's

7 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 10.8F+

6 of 10 winners were sired by horse that finished in first 3 in Epsom Derby

Sinndar progeny: 1301 (2-0-4)

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 others beaten in a Deauville group race)

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 115+ last time out (2 exceptions posted an RPR of 107+)

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that year

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a group race

9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Treve): 5 (0-0-1)

Yorkshire Oaks winner (Tapestry): 1d11 (2-0-3)

Prix Saint-Alary winner (Vazira): 13666 (1-1-5)

Nassau Stakes winner (Sultanina): 1 (1-0-1)

Previous year's Prix Joubert winner (Siljan's Saga): 23 (0-2-2)

Prix Corrida winner (Siljan's Saga): 23 (0-2-2)

Prix de Malleret winner (Dolniya): 2743d24 (0-2-6)

Prix de la Pepiniere winner (Baltic Baroness): 2 (0-1-1)

Musidora Stakes winner (Madame Chiang): 3 (0-1-1)

5 of 7 winners aged 3 (last 5) ran in Prix de Diane, finishing 21121

3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in Prix de la Cascade as 2yos, finishing 311

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in Prix Marcel Boussac, finishing 15

2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in Prix Allez France, finishing 03

2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in Yorkshire Oaks last time, finishing 11

Trainers

French-trained runners: 9-13-79

British-trained runners: 1-4-12

German-trained runners: 0-1-7

Irish-trained runners: 0-0-7

Alain De Royer-Dupre (4-2-10) has a fine record in this race, gaining 4 wins and 2 places from 10 runners. His three 3yo winners all finished in first 2 in French or Irish Oaks.

Criquette Head Maarek (1-0-1) trained Treve to win this last year.

John Gosden (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame.

Carlos Laffon-Parias (0-1-2) saddled Solemia to finish 3rd in 2012 before winning the Arc.

Andre Fabre (0-4-21) has saddled several fancied runners but from 21 runners in last 10 years he has gained no winners and just 4 places, and you have to go back to 1993 for Fabre’s last winner of this. Aidan O’Brien (0-0-6) has seen his last 6 runners all finish unplaced.

Price

8 of 10 winners were sent off favourite

Favourites (8-0-10) show a level stakes profit of 9.21.


Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Won a group race last time (finished no worse than 3rd)

- Posted an RPR of 115+ last time

- Run 2 to 5 times in 2014

- Previously won over 1M 2F+

- Finished in first 2 in a group 1

- Course winner

- A 3yo that finished in first 2 in the Prix de Diane

- A 3yo that finished in first 3 in Prix De La Cascade and/or Marcel Boussac as a 2yo

- Aged 4+ that ran in Yorkshire Oaks and/or Prix Allez France this year

- Trained by Alain De Royer-Dupre

- Favourite does well.