AYR GOLD CUP TRENDS 2014

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The Ayr Gold Cup, which takes place on the Saturday 20th September, is the most valuable sprint handicap run in Europe. Run over 6 furlongs, 8 of the last 12 winners have been provided by Kevin Ryan and Dandy Nicholls. horses that don’t make the cut for this run in the Silver Cup earlier on Saturday and the Bronze Cup on Friday, both races can often provide clues as to the best place to be drawn.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-4-22
4yo: 4-5-74
5yo: 4-11-69
6yo: 2-6-45
7yo+: 0-4-49
horses aged between 4 and 6 have won the last 10, though that age group has represented around 72.6% of the total runners.
horses aged 7 or older have not won the race since 1993 and only 4 of their 49 representatives in the last 10 years have made the frame.

Weights


horses carrying 9-6 or over: 2-7-39
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-5: 5-13-105
horses carrying 8-6 to 8-13: 3-10-107
horses carrying 8-5 or less: 0-0-8
Last 9 winners were all allotted 9-0 or more (before claim).
horses carrying a penalty: 2-5-25
Top weight: 3009200370033 (0-5-13)

Official Ratings


horses rated 101 or higher: 3-14-98
horses rated 97 to 100: 6-11-104
horses rated 96 or less: 1-5-57
In recent years the trend has been towards higher rated horses. 8 of last 9 winners were rated between 97 and 105, while 29 of 36 placed horses in the past 9 years were rated 97 to 105.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out


9 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days
8 of 10 winners had their last run at Ripon, Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster
8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 101+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners (last 7) had gained no more than 1 handicap win that season (5 hadn't won)
7 of 10 winners had won over at 6 furlongs (3 exceptions won over 7F)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better


7 of 10 winners had run in a listed or group race
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 14+ runners in it

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Highland Colori): 505000 (0-0-6)
Buckingham Palace Stakes winner (Louis The Pious): 10 (1-0-2)
Symphony Group Handicap winner (Blaine): 20 (0-1-2)
Great St Wilfrid winner (Out Do): 2005 (0-1-4)
Stewards Sprint winner (Barnet Fair): 08 (0-0-2)
Previous year's Wentworth Stakes winner (Jack Dexter): 00 (0-0-2)
Coral Sprint Trophy winner (Mass Rally): 07 (0-0-2)
Coral.co.uk Sprint Trophy winner (Eastern Impact): 00 (0-0-2)
Riu Palace Meloneras Handicap winner (Fast Shot): 080 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 0424
4 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 0000
3 of 10 winners ran in Bunbury Cup, finishing 336
3 of 10 winners ran in Breed German Buy German Win German Handicap, finishing 783
3 of 10 winners ran in Buckingham Palace, finishing 180
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham Handicap, finishing 00

Trainers


Dandy Nicholls (3-4-35) has won 5 of the last 13 runnings of this race.
Kevin Ryan (3-2-27) have won this 3 times in past 7 years, including 2 of the last 3 winners, both of whom had placed in Great St Wilfrid handicap on their previous start.
Richard Fahey (1-4-26) has saddled the winner and multiple places in the past 10 years.
Richard Hannon yard (1-0-1), Andrew Balding (1-0-3) & Clive Cox (1-0-7) have also trained the winner once since 2004.
Roger Charlton (0-2-4) has filled 2 places from his 4 runners in last 10 runnings, while David Barron (0-2-17) has also been responsible for 2 places.
Milton Bradley (0-1-2) saddled the runner-up in 2001, 2002 and 2012.
Ger Lyons (0-1-2). Karl Burke (0-1-2) & Rae Guest (0-1-2) have also saddled 1 placed finisher from 2 runners in past 10 runnings.
Irish-trained-runners (0-3-8) have gained 3 places from 8 runners.

Draw


horses drawn 1 to 9: 4-11-90
horses drawn 10 to 18: 3-11-90
horses drawn 19 or higher: 3-8-79
The winners have come from all over the track. The best option is to view the races run over the sprint course on Thursday, Friday & Silver Cup earlier on the Saturday card to source clues about the draw.

Price


9 of 10 winners (last 9) were priced between 10/1 and 20/1


There has been no winner priced shorter than 10/1 in last 10 years. The longest priced winner in past 10 years has been 33/1 (2004).
Favourites (0-4-11) have failed to win any of the last 10 and only finding 4 places, level stakes loss of 10.00.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 to 6
- Carrying 8-13 to 9-6
- Officially rated 97 to 105
- Has run at least 4 times this season
- Won no more than one handicap in 2014
- Ran in a class 3 or better in past 35 days
- Had last run at Haydock, Ripon, Goodwood or Doncaster
- Posted an RPR of 101+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts
- Won at class 3 level or higher
- Previously contested a class 1 race
- Won over 6F or 7F
- Has won a race with 14+ runners
- Placed in the Great St Wilfrid and/or Bunbury Cup
- Ran in the Stewards Cup, Buckingham Palace and/or Breed German Buy German H’cap
- Trained by Dandy Nicholls or Kevin Ryan
- Priced between 10/1 and 20/1.