CELEBRATION MILE TRENDS 2014

[ganjaman2]

The Group 2 Betfair Celebration Mile takes place on the 23rd August and is the highlight at Goodwood on Saturday. Run over a mile for 3yos and upwards, it has been won by some top class horses in the past including Raven’s Pass in 2008, who went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 4-2-16

4yo: 1-4-20

5yo: 3-3-14

6yo+: 2-3-15

3yos have taken 4 of the last 6 renewals (& weren’t represented in 2013). All 4 ran in a 2000 Guineas and 3 of the 4 had run in the St James Palace Stakes.



Gender

Fillies and mares (3-1-8) receive a 3lb allowance and 3 of the 8 to run in the race have been successful, though all 3 female winners were trained by Michael Stoute with Chic accounting for 2 of the wins.



Weight

horses carrying a group 1 penalty (6lbs): 3 (0-0-1)

horses carrying a group 2 penalty (3lbs): 65336523 (0-3-8)

All 9 runners to carry a penalty since 2004 have been beaten.



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times that season

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time (3 exceptions were unplaced in a group 1 or 2)

10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M

9 of 10 winner had won a group 2 or 3 (exception had won multiple listed races)

0 of 10 winners had won a group 1

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (exception yet to run in a group 1)

4 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in a group 1 as 2yos



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from St James' Palace Stakes: 68111 (3-0-5)

Highest placed finisher from 2000 Guineas: 831115 (3-0-6)

Highest placed finisher from Hungerford Stakes: 1213 (2-1-4)

International Trial Stakes winner (Bow Creek): 1 (1-0-1)

Sovereign Stakes winner (Captain Cat): 651 (1-0-3)

3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 422

3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the St James Palace Stakes, finishing 226

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 82

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven, finishing 21

2 of 3 female winners ran in Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, finishing 75

3 of 10 winners ran in the Hungerford Stakes last time, finishing 134

2 of 10 winners ran in Sovereign Stakes last time, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 02



Trainers

John Gosden (1-0-1) trained the 1st & 4th in 1998, the runner-up in 2000 and his only runner in the past 10 years was Raven’s Pass, winner in 2008.

The Richard Hannon yard (1-0-7) accounted for runner-up in 2001 & 2002 and winner in 2011.

David Simcock (0-1-1), Roger Charlton (0-1-2) & James Fanshawe (0-1-3) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years.



Price

9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was a 20/1 shot in 2012.

Favourites (3-2-10) have 3 of the last 10, which isn’t a great record when you consider that 8 of the 10 favourites were sent off 11/8 or shorter. Backing the favourites would have resulted in a level stakes loss of 4.46.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- 3yo who finished in the first 5 in St James Palace or aged 5

- Filly/mare aged 4+ do well

- Carrying no penalty

- Finished in the first 4 last time out

- Won over 7 furlongs or 1M

- Previously won a group 2 or 3 (or multiple listed races)

- Finished in first 5 in a group 1

- Ran in the Sussex, Hungerford or Sovereign Stakes last time

- From first 4 in the betting.

[damianr]

Grats to the winners here. Someday, I hope I'd get to see my name included.