Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,945
    Thanks
    358
    Thanked:        1,657
    Karma Level
    318

    Info CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2014

    The Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 27th September and as always will be a wide open affair with around 30 runners going to post. It makes up the first part of the Autumn Double with the Cesarewitch to follow in October.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 3-7-63
    4yo: 3-9-124
    5yo: 2-6-59
    6yo+: 2-8-74
    horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 6-16-187
    horses aged 5+ have a combined record of 4-14-123
    The last winner aged older than 6 was in 1993.

    Weights


    horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-33
    horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-10-101
    horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-13-134
    horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 0-3-46
    horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-1-6
    9 of 10 winners carried between 8-7 and 9-3, though that weight band has represented slightly over 63% of total runners in past 10 runnings.
    Top Weight: 000000000000 (0-0-12)
    horses carrying a penalty: 1-7-40

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 103 or higher: 1-5-50
    horses rated 92 to 102: 7-20-210
    horses rated 91 or lower: 2-5-60
    8 of last 10 winners were officially rated 95 to 104

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that year
    7 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
    8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap last time (1 exception ran in a class 3 & other ran in group 2)
    8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time out
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 96+ last time


    10 of 10 winners had won or placed at class 2 or higher


    9 of 10 winners had won a race that year (7 had won 2+ races that season)
    8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 8K or more
    8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (2 exceptions had won over 1M)
    10 of 10 winners had won a race with 13+ runners
    6 of 10 winners had run in fewer than 12 handicaps
    10 of 10 winners had won no more than 5 handicaps

    Other Races


    Previous season's winner (Educate): 0000 (0-0-4)
    Top 4 finishers from Zetland Gold Cup: 4100304108 (2-3-10)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai Duty Free H'cap at Newbury, finishing 9230
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Cup, finishing 000
    2 of 10 winners ran in St James Theatre H'cap, finishing 45
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Zetland Gold Cup, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Bet365.com Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 55
    2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in Boylesports.com Download Our App H'cap at Newmarket July meeting, finishing 14

    Trainers


    John Gosden (2-0-9) trained back to back runnings in 2007 & 2008.
    Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4) saddled the 1st & 3rd in 2012.
    Ismail Mohammed (1-0-1), Michael Wigham (1-0-2) & Hughie Morrison (1-0-4) have also trained the winner in past 10 years.
    Jim Goldie (0-3-4) has seen 3 of his 4 runners make the places.
    Mark Johnston (0-2-11) has saddled 2 placed finishers since 2004.
    Michael Appleby (0-1-1) & Roger Teal (0-1-1) have both seen their one runner make the places in past 4 renewals.
    Michael Stoute (0-0-6), Brian Meehan (0-0-6), Andrew Balding (0-0-7), Richard Fahey (0-0-8) & Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-8) have struggled in this, failing to gain a single place from their combined 35 runners.

    Draw


    Drawn in bottom 10 stalls: 3-7-100
    horses drawn in the middle: 5-11-120
    horses drawn in top 10 stalls: 2-12-100
    No strong trends on the draw of the winners.

    Racing Style


    7 of 10 winners were held up off the pace
    All 3 winners that raced prominently did so on good to firm ground.

    Price


    No strong trends on the prices. There have been a few big upsets with a 100/1 winner in 2004 and there have been winners at 25/1 & 40/1 in past 6 years.
    Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 11.00.



    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 or younger
    - Carrying 8-7 to 9-3
    - Officially rated 95 to 104
    - Has run 4 to 7 times in 2014
    - Finished in the first 4 in a class 2 handicap last time
    - Posted highest RPR of past 12 months (of 96+) on last start
    - Won a race in 2014 (ideally won more than 1)
    - Has won or placed at class 2 level or above
    - Won over 1M 2F
    - Won a race with 13+ runners
    - Ran in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury
    - Finished in first 5 in Zetland Gold Cup, St James Threatre H'cap and/or Bet365.com Stakes
    - 3yo that finished in first 4 in Boylesports.com Download Our App H'cap
    - Trained by John Gosden, Marcus Tregoning, Jim Goldie or Hughie Morrison
    - Hold up horses favoured on softer
    - horse that race prominently favoured on faster ground.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (22nd September 2014) 


Similar Threads

  1. CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2016
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 23rd September 2016, 08:51 AM
  2. CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2015
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 22nd September 2015, 09:57 PM
  3. IRISH CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 25th August 2014, 03:49 PM
  4. CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2013
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 23rd September 2013, 11:21 PM
  5. CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2011
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 19th September 2011, 08:21 PM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •