The Connolly’s Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes is a group 1 for fillies run over 6 furlongs and it takes place on Saturday 27th September at Newmarket on the supporting card for the Cambridgeshire. There have been top class winners of this since 2000 including Queens Logic, Coronation Stakes winner Indian Ink and 1000 Guineas winners Natagora and Special Duty.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Race for 2yo fillies
10 of 10 winners were born in January, February or March
9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 6.8f to 9.6f
Only 1 of 10 winners were by a sired with a stamina index greater than 10.0f
Invincible Spirit progeny: 211 (2-1-3)
Oasis Dream progeny: 80226 (0-2-5)
The 3 Invincible Spirit fillies to run in this finished 2nd in 2007, 1st in 2010 & 1st in 2012.
10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in later than 28th April
9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times (exception won 2 previous starts)
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice before (exception had won a group 2 & was 2nd in a group 1 on previous start)
7 of 10 winners won last time out (3 exceptions were 2nd to a colt in Prix Morny)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 105+ last time
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F
9 of 10 winners had contested a group race (exception won a listed race last time)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a group race (1 exception had won listed race and another won a sales race worth 136K)
Lowther Stakes winner (Tiggy Wiggy): 6373151 (2-2-7)
Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes winner (Arabian Queen): 7126 (1-1-4)
Queen Mary Stakes winner (Anthem Alexander): 3360357 (0-2-7)
Prix d'Arenberg winner (High Celebrity): 7 (0-0-1)
Digipos Partner EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Tendu): 4 (0-0-1)
Weatherbys Super Sprint winner (Tiggy Wiggy): 0 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lowther Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 3 winners trained in France ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 222
3 of 3 winners trained in France ran in the Robert Papin, finishing 111
2 of 3 winners trained in France ran in Prix La Fleche, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Princess Margaret Stakes, finishing 64
2 of 10 winners ran in the Duchess Of Cambridge, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in St Hugh's Stakes, finishing 61
British-trained runners: 6-17-84
French-trained runners: 3-0-5
Irish-trained runners: 1-1-16
Richard Hannon yard (1-0-6) won the race in 2006.
John Gosden (0-1-2) has saddled 1 place finisher since 2004.
The three French-trained winners had won the Prix Robert Papin and finished 2nd in the Morny.
8 of 10 winners (last 8) came from first 2 in the betting
8 of 10 winners have been priced 4/1 or lower with both exceptions being trained by Brian Meehan.
Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 3.88.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Born before 31/03/2012
- Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 6.8F to 9.6F
- Had 3 or more career starts (or unbeaten in 2 runs)
- Won last time out (& posted an RPR of 105+)
- Won at least two previous races
- Won over 6F
- Won a group race
- Finished in first 3 in the Lowther and/or Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes
- French-trained that finished in first 2 in Prix Robert Papin & Morny
- From first two in the betting.