SUN CHARIOT STAKES TRENDS 2014

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The Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 4th October. Run over a mile for fillies and mares aged 3 or older, the race was upgraded to group 1 status in 2004 and French-trained runners have won 4 of the last 5 renewals (with Sahpresa winning 3 in a row between 2009 & 2011).





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 5-7-39
4yo: 3-7-26
5yo: 1-2-14
6yo+: 1-1-2
3yos have won 5 of 10 from slightly less than 50% of the total runners.
Sahpresa & Siyouma (both French-trained) have accounted for 4 of 5 wins for older horses.
The only horse aged older than 4 to win this in past 50 years has been Sahpresa, who this aged 4, 5 & 6.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had won a race that season
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ last time
8 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (exceptions had finished 3rd & 4th group 1 that season)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1
5 of 5 winners aged 4+ had finished in first 4 in a group 1
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F (exception was placed in 1M group 1 on only previous start over than 1M 2F)

Other races


Previous season's winner (Sky Lantern): 11 (2-0-2)
Coronation Stakes winner (Rizeena): 1721 (2-1-4)
1000 Guineas winner (Miss France): 1021 (2-1-4)
Duke Of Cambridge winner (Integral): 122323 (1-4-6)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Rizeena): 1 (1-0-1)
Fred Darling Stakes winner (J Wonder): 461 (1-0-3)
Atlanta Stakes winner (Fintry): 3482 (0-2-4)
Oak Tree winner (J Wonder): 5932 (0-2-4)
Prix de Sandringham winner (Fintry): 3 (0-1-1)
Prix Rothschild winner (Esoterique): 24 (0-1-2)
Dahlia winner (Esoterique): 35524 (0-1-5)
Sceptre Stakes (Kiyoshi): 6866 (0-0-4)
Falmouth Stakes winner (Integral): 47484 (0-0-5)
Record of 2nd & 3rd from Falmouth: 113453631211 (5-4-12)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 23232
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Jacque Le Marois, finishing 03
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 171
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the English 1000 Guineas, finishing 161
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Nell Gwyn, finishing 22
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Nassau Stakes, finishing 15
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Matron Stakes, finishing 23
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Oak Tree Stakes, finishing 55
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish 1000 Guineas, finishing 11
2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Rothschild, finishing 42
2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, finishing 18

Trainers


British-trained runners: 5-16-61
French-trained runners: 4-1-7
Irish-trained runners: 1-0-12
German-trained runners: 0-0-1
French trained runners have won 4 of last 5 and were not represented last year.
Michael Stoute (1-5-11) has saddled a winner and 5 places from 11 runners since 2004.
The Richard Hannon yard (1-0-1) won this with Sky Lantern last year.
Aidan O’Brien (1-0-5) trained Halfway To Heaven to win this in 2008.
Alain De Royer-Dupre (0-1-2) & Brian Meehan (0-1-2) have both saddled a placed finisher in past 6 years.

Price


No strong trends on the prices. 6 of 10 winners have gone off between 8/1 & 16/1 while the other 4 were all sent off shorter than 5/1.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.62.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Finished in first 4 last time & posted an RPR of 107+
- Has run in the last 45 days
- Run 4 to 7 times in 2014 (and won at least once)
- Has won a group race
- Finished in first 4 in a group 1
- Won over 7F or 8F
- Finished in first 3 in Falmouth Stakes
- 3yo that finished in first 3 in Coronation, Matron Stakes, Nell Gwyn, Irish or English 1000 Guineas or
- 4yo that ran in Duke Of Cambridge and/or Prix Rothschild
- Trained in France.