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    Info PRIX DE LA FORET TRENDS 2014

    The Qatar Prix de la Foret takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 5th October and is one of seven group 1’s on a top class card. This is probably the most prestigious 7 furlong race run in Europe each season.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 3-8-42
    4yo: 2-5-28
    5yo: 4-2-17
    6yo+: 1-4-17
    No strong trends on ages.

    Gender


    Fillies & mares (2-7-35) have gained only 2 wins despite representing over a third of total runners. Both female winners were 5yos that finished in first 2 in the Prix Jacques Le Marois last time.

    Breeding


    9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 7.4F to 8.8F
    8 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 winner over 1M or shorter (2 exceptions were by group winners over 6 & 7 furlongs)

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 113+ last time


    10 of 10 winners had run in the last 60 days
    8 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season (2 exceptions had 8+ runs)
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 2 or more races that year (exception had won once in a group 1 that year)
    9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race that year
    9 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 7F (exception was Goldikova who had finished 3rd in previous year)
    9 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (1 exception was having first try in a group 1)
    6 of 7 winners aged 4+ had finished 1st or 2nd in group 1 or 2 last time out
    2 of 3 winners aged 3 had won a group race (1 other was 2nd in a group 3 last time)

    Other Races


    Lennox Stakes winner (Es Que Love): 1513 (2-1-4)
    Prix Maurice de Gheest winner (Garswood): 17341 (2-1-5)
    Hungerford Stakes winner (Breton Rock): 20150 (1-1-5)
    City Of York Stakes winner (Absolutely So): 1 (1-0-1)
    Desmond Stakes winner (Custom Cut): 22 (0-2-2)
    Park Stakes winner (Ansgar): 576 (0-0-3)
    4 of 10 winners ran in Prix Maurice de Gheest, finishing 1471
    3 of 7 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Jacques le Marois, finishing 421
    3 of 6 British or Irish trained winners ran in Haydock Sprint Cup, finishing 212
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Lennox Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Hungerford Stakes, finishing 31
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 51
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Celebration Mile, finishing 31
    2 of 2 female winners ran in previous year's Breeders Cup Mile, finishing 18
    2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Porte de la Maillot, finishing 21

    Trainers


    British-trained horses: 5-6-37
    French Trained horses: 3-10-47
    Irish-trained horses: 1-3-10
    German-trained horses: 1-0-5
    Other: 0-0-5
    Freddie Head (2-3-10) has won the race in 2013 & 2010, both times with 5yo mares (Moonlight Cloud & Goldikova).
    The Richard Hannon yard (1-2-3) won it in 2008 and also saddled the 2nd & 3rd behind Goldikova in 2010.
    Tom Hogan (1-1-2) trained Gordon Lord Byron to win it in 2012 and finished 2nd last year.
    Alain De Royer-Dupre (1-1-4) & David Simcock (1-0-1) have both trained a 3yo to win this in last 5 years.

    Draw
    Drawn in bottom half: 1-8-54
    Drawn in top half: 9-11-50
    9 of last 10 winners were drawn high.
    Since 2000 all 3 winners drawn in bottom half came on very soft ground.

    Price


    8 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter


    Toylsome (2007) at 100/1 and Varenar (2009) at 20/1 have been the 2 big upsets in the past 10 years.
    Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 3.92.



    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Sired by a group 1 winner with a stamina index of 7.4F to 8.8F
    - Run 3 to 6 times this season
    - Finished in the first 3 last time out, posting an RPR of 113+
    - Had last run in the past 60 days
    - Won a listed or group race in 2014
    - Won 2+ races already this year
    - Won over 6F to 7F
    - Finished in first 4 in a group 1
    - Finished in first 4 in Prix Maurice de Gheest, Jacque Le Marois and/or Haydock Sprint Cup
    - 3yo that finished in first 6 in Prix du Pin and/or a French Guineas
    - Drawn in top half of stalls
    - Trained in Great Britain or by Freddie Head, Tom Hogan or Alain De Royer Dupre
    - Priced 8/1 or shorter (favourite does well).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    neilb (29th September 2014) 


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