PRIX DE LA FORET TRENDS 2014

[ganjaman2]

The Qatar Prix de la Foret takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 5th October and is one of seven group 1’s on a top class card. This is probably the most prestigious 7 furlong race run in Europe each season.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 3-8-42
4yo: 2-5-28
5yo: 4-2-17
6yo+: 1-4-17
No strong trends on ages.

Gender


Fillies & mares (2-7-35) have gained only 2 wins despite representing over a third of total runners. Both female winners were 5yos that finished in first 2 in the Prix Jacques Le Marois last time.

Breeding


9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 7.4F to 8.8F
8 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 winner over 1M or shorter (2 exceptions were by group winners over 6 & 7 furlongs)

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 113+ last time


10 of 10 winners had run in the last 60 days
8 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season (2 exceptions had 8+ runs)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 2 or more races that year (exception had won once in a group 1 that year)
9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race that year
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 7F (exception was Goldikova who had finished 3rd in previous year)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (1 exception was having first try in a group 1)
6 of 7 winners aged 4+ had finished 1st or 2nd in group 1 or 2 last time out
2 of 3 winners aged 3 had won a group race (1 other was 2nd in a group 3 last time)

Other Races


Lennox Stakes winner (Es Que Love): 1513 (2-1-4)
Prix Maurice de Gheest winner (Garswood): 17341 (2-1-5)
Hungerford Stakes winner (Breton Rock): 20150 (1-1-5)
City Of York Stakes winner (Absolutely So): 1 (1-0-1)
Desmond Stakes winner (Custom Cut): 22 (0-2-2)
Park Stakes winner (Ansgar): 576 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in Prix Maurice de Gheest, finishing 1471
3 of 7 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Jacques le Marois, finishing 421
3 of 6 British or Irish trained winners ran in Haydock Sprint Cup, finishing 212
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Lennox Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Hungerford Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 51
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Celebration Mile, finishing 31
2 of 2 female winners ran in previous year's Breeders Cup Mile, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Porte de la Maillot, finishing 21

Trainers


British-trained horses: 5-6-37
French Trained horses: 3-10-47
Irish-trained horses: 1-3-10
German-trained horses: 1-0-5
Other: 0-0-5
Freddie Head (2-3-10) has won the race in 2013 & 2010, both times with 5yo mares (Moonlight Cloud & Goldikova).
The Richard Hannon yard (1-2-3) won it in 2008 and also saddled the 2nd & 3rd behind Goldikova in 2010.
Tom Hogan (1-1-2) trained Gordon Lord Byron to win it in 2012 and finished 2nd last year.
Alain De Royer-Dupre (1-1-4) & David Simcock (1-0-1) have both trained a 3yo to win this in last 5 years.

Draw
Drawn in bottom half: 1-8-54
Drawn in top half: 9-11-50
9 of last 10 winners were drawn high.
Since 2000 all 3 winners drawn in bottom half came on very soft ground.

Price


8 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter


Toylsome (2007) at 100/1 and Varenar (2009) at 20/1 have been the 2 big upsets in the past 10 years.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 3.92.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sired by a group 1 winner with a stamina index of 7.4F to 8.8F
- Run 3 to 6 times this season
- Finished in the first 3 last time out, posting an RPR of 113+
- Had last run in the past 60 days
- Won a listed or group race in 2014
- Won 2+ races already this year
- Won over 6F to 7F
- Finished in first 4 in a group 1
- Finished in first 4 in Prix Maurice de Gheest, Jacque Le Marois and/or Haydock Sprint Cup
- 3yo that finished in first 6 in Prix du Pin and/or a French Guineas
- Drawn in top half of stalls
- Trained in Great Britain or by Freddie Head, Tom Hogan or Alain De Royer Dupre
- Priced 8/1 or shorter (favourite does well).