CESAREWITCH HANDICAP TRENDS 2014

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The Betfred Cesarewitch takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 11th October and as always will be a wide open affair with over 30 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Bronze Angel two weeks ago.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-2-14
4yo: 3-8-103
5yo: 1-7-71
6yo: 3-7-63
7yo: 0-4-40
8yo+: 2-2-37
No strong trends on ages.

Weights


horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-1-19
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-7-65
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 3-11-89
horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 2-7-93
horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 1-3-56
horses carrying 7-6 or less: 0-1-6
No very strong trend to be gleaned from the weights.
Top Weight: 00005904186 (1-1-11)
horses carrying a penalty (1-6-48) don’t have a great record with just 7 of 48 runners making the frame, though they did fill the 1st & 3rd in 2011 and runners-up spot in 2012.

Official Ratings


horses rated 99 to 109: 2-5-31
horses rated 87 to 98: 7-15-168
horses rated 76 to 86: 1-10-129
7 of last 8 winners were officially rated 87 to 98. That ratings bracket has also accounted for 21 of the 28 places in past 7 runnings.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last flat start (1 exception 6th in listed race)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 91+ last time
6 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR on last flat start
9 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run at least 4 times that year (flat or hurdles)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a class 2 or 3 handicap
6 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)
7 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level
3 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (since 2000 5 of 14 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)

Other Races


John Guest Brown Jack Stakes winner (Maid In Rio): 00801000 (1-0-8)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 1080
3 of 10 winners ran in Doncaster Cup, finishing 229
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 243
3 of 10 winners ran in John Guest Brown Jack Stakes, finishing 512
2 of 10 winners ran in the Shergar Cup Stayers handicap, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Investec Zebra handicap, finishing 30

Trainers


Mark Johnston (2-1-19) trained the 16/1 winner in 2004 & 66/1 winner in 2013.


Nicky Henderson (1-2-10) has gained 2 winners and a second from his 12 runners in since 2003
Philip Hobbs (1-1-6) & Tony Martin (1-1-5) & have each saddled the winner and 1 placed finisher since 2004.
David Simcock (1-0-2) is the other trainer with an entrant to have won this in past 10 years.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-1) has seen his one runner get placed, while Pat Phelan (0-1-2), John Quinn (0-1-5), Andrew Balding (0-1-7), Jim Goldie (0-1-9), Richard Fahey (0-1-7) and Mark Prescott (0-1-12) have all saddled 1 placed finisher since 2004.
Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 6 of the last 14 runnings since 2000 (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Tony Martin and Philip Hobbs).
Irish-trained runners (1-3-17) have made the frame with 4 of 17 runners.

Draw


horses drawn 1 to 12: 6-15-120
horses drawn 13 to 24: 3-9-120
horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-6-88
Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 7 of the last 11 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.
horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-7-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 5 of last 12 winners and filled a quarter of the places in past 10 years from just over 15% of the total runners.

Price


Outsiders have been the order of the day in recent years. 5 of the last 6 winners have gone off at 16/1 or bigger, including winners at 50/1 in 2008 and 66/1 winners in each of last 2 renewals.
Favourites (2-5-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

Racing Style


8 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division


This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there with only 2 winners racing prominently, both came from a stall higher than 18.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Non-hurdler aged 3 to 5 or hurdles runner aged 6+
- Officially rated 87 to 98
- Finished in the first 4 last time in a class 3 or higher
- Posted highest RPR last time out (posted an RPR of 91+)
- Run in 9 or fewer flat handicaps (winning no more than 3)
- Won over at least 2 miles
- Won over hurdles (and ran at this year’s Cheltenham Festival)
- Previously contested a group or listed race
- Previously won a class 2 or 3 handicap
- Ran in this season’s Northumberland Plate
- First 5 in Ascot Stakes Doncaster Cup, Shergar Cup Stayers or John Guest Brown Jack H’cap
- Drawn 1 to 12 (ideally in 1 to 5)
- Tends to be held up or settled in midfield
- Trained by Nicky Henderson, Mark Johnston, Philip Hobbs or Tony Martin.