MUNSTER NATIONAL TRENDS 2014

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The Ladbrokes Munster National takes place at Limerick on Sunday 13th October. Previously run at Cork, it has been run at Limerick since 2001. It’s a handicap chase run over 3 miles, prize money of over €95,000 will be up for grabs. Younger less exposed horses with good recent form have held the call in recent years.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-4-12
7yo: 4-10-38
8yo: 5-2-32
9yo: 0-5-35
10yo: 0-2-14
11yo+: 0-0-8
The last 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8, who have a combined record of 10-16-82 compared to horses aged 9+: 0-7-57.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-6 or higher: 4-12-76
horses carrying 10-5 or lower: 6-11-63
6 of the last 10 winners carried 10-5 or less, and they represented just over 45% of total runners.
Top Weight: 5F702507P8 (0-0-10)

Official Ratings


horses rated 130 or higher: 4-10-69
horses rated 119 to 129: 6-13-62
horses rated 118 or lower: 0-0-8
Last 5 winners were officially rated 122 to 138, that ratings band also accounted for 14 of 16 places in past 5 renewals.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on one or both of last two chase starts


7 of 10 winners posted a career high chase RPR of 129+ on last completed chase start


6 of 10 winners had not run in the past 60 days
4 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (5 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on only previous start here in a handicap chase)
7 of 10 winners had run in a class 1 chase (1 exception had won a chase worth 26K and other 2 had run in a grade 2 hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over fences (exception won 5 times)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers
4 of 10 winners were unplaced in a chase at that year's Punchestown Festival

Other Races


Highest Placed finisher from previous season's Troyrown: 31P4U (1-2-5)
Belvedere House, Gardens & Park Handicap Chase winner (Raajih): Klb 17 May 3m1f
4 of 10 winners had run in a 2M 6F chase at Galway in August/September
2 of 10 winners had their last start in a chase at the Punchestown Festival
2 of 10 winners ran in Pat Taaffe H'cap Chase, finishing 0F
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Troytown, finishing 06
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing 20
2 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 11

Trainers


Noel Meade (2-3-13) trained the winner in 2005 & 2011 and saddled the runner-up in 4 of the other 10 runnings since 2002.
Tom Taaffe (1-0-2) & Dessie Hughes (1-0-6) have also both saddled the winner in past 5 years.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-1) and Charles Byrnes (0-1-1) have saddled a placed finisher in past 3 runnings.
Arthur Moore (0-0-2) trained the winner in 2001 and runner-up in 2003 but his 2 in past 10 years have both been unplaced.

Racing Tactics


8 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

Price


No very strong trend on prices, though 8 of last 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-2-12) have won the race twice in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 5.25.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 8
- Carrying 10-5 or less
- Officially rated 122 to 138
- Finished in the first 3 on one or both of last 2 chase starts
- Posted a career high chase RPR of 129+ on last chase start
- Course winner (or having first start here)
- Won 1 to 4 times over fences
- Won a chase over 2M 4F+
- First, second or third season chaser
- Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 3)
- Ran in a chase at the 2014 Punchestown Festival
- Run in a 2M 6F handicap chase at Galway in past 90 days
- Previously run in a class 1 chase
- Trained by Noel Meade.