Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,952
    Thanks
    362
    Thanked:        1,658
    Karma Level
    323

    Info MUNSTER NATIONAL TRENDS 2014

    The Ladbrokes Munster National takes place at Limerick on Sunday 13th October. Previously run at Cork, it has been run at Limerick since 2001. It’s a handicap chase run over 3 miles, prize money of over €95,000 will be up for grabs. Younger less exposed horses with good recent form have held the call in recent years.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-4-12
    7yo: 4-10-38
    8yo: 5-2-32
    9yo: 0-5-35
    10yo: 0-2-14
    11yo+: 0-0-8
    The last 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8, who have a combined record of 10-16-82 compared to horses aged 9+: 0-7-57.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 10-6 or higher: 4-12-76
    horses carrying 10-5 or lower: 6-11-63
    6 of the last 10 winners carried 10-5 or less, and they represented just over 45% of total runners.
    Top Weight: 5F702507P8 (0-0-10)

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 130 or higher: 4-10-69
    horses rated 119 to 129: 6-13-62
    horses rated 118 or lower: 0-0-8
    Last 5 winners were officially rated 122 to 138, that ratings band also accounted for 14 of 16 places in past 5 renewals.

    Recent/Past Form


    8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on one or both of last two chase starts


    7 of 10 winners posted a career high chase RPR of 129+ on last completed chase start


    6 of 10 winners had not run in the past 60 days
    4 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (5 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on only previous start here in a handicap chase)
    7 of 10 winners had run in a class 1 chase (1 exception had won a chase worth 26K and other 2 had run in a grade 2 hurdle)
    10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F+
    10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over fences (exception won 5 times)
    9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases
    10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
    10 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers
    4 of 10 winners were unplaced in a chase at that year's Punchestown Festival

    Other Races


    Highest Placed finisher from previous season's Troyrown: 31P4U (1-2-5)
    Belvedere House, Gardens & Park Handicap Chase winner (Raajih): Klb 17 May 3m1f
    4 of 10 winners had run in a 2M 6F chase at Galway in August/September
    2 of 10 winners had their last start in a chase at the Punchestown Festival
    2 of 10 winners ran in Pat Taaffe H'cap Chase, finishing 0F
    2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Troytown, finishing 06
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing 20
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 11

    Trainers


    Noel Meade (2-3-13) trained the winner in 2005 & 2011 and saddled the runner-up in 4 of the other 10 runnings since 2002.
    Tom Taaffe (1-0-2) & Dessie Hughes (1-0-6) have also both saddled the winner in past 5 years.
    Gordon Elliot (0-1-1) and Charles Byrnes (0-1-1) have saddled a placed finisher in past 3 runnings.
    Arthur Moore (0-0-2) trained the winner in 2001 and runner-up in 2003 but his 2 in past 10 years have both been unplaced.

    Racing Tactics


    8 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

    Price


    No very strong trend on prices, though 8 of last 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter.
    Favourites (2-2-12) have won the race twice in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 5.25.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 to 8
    - Carrying 10-5 or less
    - Officially rated 122 to 138
    - Finished in the first 3 on one or both of last 2 chase starts
    - Posted a career high chase RPR of 129+ on last chase start
    - Course winner (or having first start here)
    - Won 1 to 4 times over fences
    - Won a chase over 2M 4F+
    - First, second or third season chaser
    - Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 3)
    - Ran in a chase at the 2014 Punchestown Festival
    - Run in a 2M 6F handicap chase at Galway in past 90 days
    - Previously run in a class 1 chase
    - Trained by Noel Meade.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (10th October 2014), neilb (10th October 2014) 


Similar Threads

  1. IRISH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 8th April 2014, 06:37 PM
  2. GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 17th March 2014, 01:59 PM
  3. MUNSTER NATIONAL TRENDS 2013
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 11th October 2013, 09:32 AM
  4. MUNSTER NATIONAL TRENDS 2012
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 11th October 2012, 10:33 PM
  5. MUNSTER NATIONAL TRENDS 2011
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 7th October 2011, 11:22 PM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •