The Dubai Dewhurst Stakes is the most prestigious juvenile race run in Great Britain. It takes place at Newmarket on the Friday 17th October on the supporting card to the Cesarewitch. Jim Bolger has dominated the race in recent years, supplying 5 of the last 8 winners but does not have an entry this year.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Race for 2yos
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner that won a race as a 2yo
10 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6F to 11.2F
5 of last 8 winners were by Galileo or a son of Galileo
4 of 10 winners were by a son of Danehill or out of a daughter of Danehill
2 of 10 winners were by Giant's Causeway
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice
8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out (2 exceptions were beaten in Jean Luc Lagardere)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time
8 of 10 winners (last 8) ran in past 50 days (both exceptions won the Vintage Stakes last time)
7 of 10 winners had won over 7F (3 exceptions won over 6F & finished in first 3 in a group 1 or 2 over 7F)
7 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions were 3rd in a group 1 and other was 2nd in a group 2)
6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a group 1 (3 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1 & were unbeaten)
7 of 7 Irish-trained winners won their first race at Leopardstown or Curragh
3 of 3 British-trained winners won at Goodwood and/or Ascot last time
Futurity Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 22111 (3-2-5)
National Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 1121 (3-1-4)
Tyros Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 117 (2-0-3)
Solario Stakes winner (Aktabantay): 33 (0-2-2)
Barronstown Stud EBF Maiden winner (Gleneagles): 272 (0-2-3)
Winkfield Stakes winner (Kodi Bear): 3 (0-1-1)
Natwest Ahead EBF Stallions Maiden winner (Dutch Connection): 3 (0-1-1)
Acomb Stakes winner (Dutch Connection): 52 (0-1-2)
Superlative Stakes winner (Estidhkaar): 20678 (0-1-5)
Champagne Stakes winner (Estidhkaar): 875753 (0-0-6)
5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 11631
4 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Futurity Stakes, finishing 1121
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Tyros Stakes, finishing 112
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Phoenix Stakes, finishing 583
3 of 7 winners ran in Coventry Stakes, finishing 211
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 36
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Vintage Stakes last time, finishing 11
Aidan O’Brien (2-6-18) won the race twice in past 10 years, in 2009 with outsider Beethoven & last year with War Command. Record of his first string is 1-5-10.
Mark Johnston (1-0-3) won the race in 2004 with Shamardal.
Clive Cox (0-1-1) saddled Xtension to be placed in 2009 and Clive Cox (0-1-2) trained the runner-up in 2013.
Richard Hannon yard (0-0-4) & Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-5) have not had much success in this recently, failing to fill a single place from their 9 collective runners since 2004.
Irish-trained runners (7-8-29) have won 7 of the last 10, Jim Bolger has accounted for 5 of those wins, O’Brien the other 2.
This race is either won by one of the first two in the betting or a big outsider. 7 of last 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting while the other 3 winners went off between 20/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.25.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 8.6F to 11.2F
- By Galileo (or a son of) and/or out of a daughter by Danehill
- Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- Ran in past 50 days (or won Vintage Stakes last time)
- Posted an RPR of 110+ last time
- Won over 7F (or finished in first 3 in group 1 or 2 over 7F)
- Won a group race
- Irish-trained winner that won maiden at Leopardstown or Curragh
- Finished in first 3 in Coventry, National, Tyros and/or Futurity Stakes
- British-trained winner that won Vintage Stakes.