The race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup, takes place at Flemington Racecourse on the first Tuesday of November (4th). As usual there will be a European raiding party heading over to try to return home with the Cup and emulate the achievement of the recent French-trained winners, Americain & Dunaden, who won it in 2010 & 2011.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
9 of 10 winners aged 4 or 5 (based on Northern Hemisphere racing calendar). Makybe Diva winning it for third time as a 6yo was one exception.
Irish bred: 2-10-44
GB bred: 2-3-24
NZ bred: 1-6-54
Japanese bred: 1-1-4
USA bred: 1-1-14
French bred: 1-0-11
German bred: 0-1-5
UAE bred: 0-0-1
horses bred in New Zealand or Australia: 3-14-128
horses bred outside of New Zealand or Australia: 7-16-103
horses bred in Australia or New Zealand have accounted for over 55% of the total runners but won the race only 3 times since 2004.
The first 7 home in 2012 were all bred in Ireland and the 1st, 3rd & 4th last year were all Irish bred.
Weights (in kilos)
horses carrying 57.0 or more: 1-2-15
horses carrying 54 to 56.5: 7-12-78
horses carrying 51 to 53.5: 2-13-118
horses carrying 50.5 or less: 0-3-20
In the last 10 years:
horses carrying 53.0 or more: 9-21-137
horses carrying 52.5 or less: 1-9-94
Top Weight: 28170070400 (1-2-11)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 17 days
4 of 10 winners won a group race last time (6 others beaten in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 113+ last time out
7 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (3 exceptions were trained outside of Aus & NZ)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2400m (1M 4F) or further
10 of 10 winners had run in 13 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had run in a grade/group 1
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 in a group 1 (2 others finished 6th & 7th in a group 1)
5 of 10 winners had won at the track (3 of 5 exceptions were having first course start and one other was 2nd in previous year's race)
9 of 10 winners had won a race with 15 or more runners (exception was 2nd of 24 in previous Melbourne Cup)
4 of 10 winners (last 4) began their racing career in Great Britain or France
Record of first 4 from Dato'Tan Chin Nam Stakes: 0111809191 (5-0-10)
Turnbull Stakes winner (Lucia Valentina): 41041 (2-2-5)
Highest placed finisher from Turnbull Stakes: 4140074016 (2-4-10)
Geelong Cup winner: 02920110 (2-2-8)
Lexus Stakes winner: 0039613840 (1-3-10)
Cox Plate winner: 13 (1-1-2)
Memsie Stakes winner: 13 (1-1-2)
Highest placed finisher from Memsie Stakes: 0117301 (3-1-7)
Mackinnon Stakes winner: 1030 (1-1-4)
Blamey Stakes winner (Lidari): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Kergolay winner (Perfectionist): 10P (1-0-3)
The BMW Stakes winner (Silent Achiever): 100 (1-0-3)
Sydney Cup winner (The Offer): 1000 (1-0-4)
Princess Of Wales Stakes winner (Cavalryman): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's VRC Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner (Precedence): 30 (0-1-2)
Prix de Reux winner (Gatewood): 40 (0-1-2)
Caulfield Stakes winner (Fawkner): 03 (0-1-2)
Caulfield Cup winner (Admire Rakti): 40087P0 (0-1-6)
Record of horses placed in Caulfield Cup: 0108100770800005050005 (2-0-22)
Geoffrey Freer Stakes winner (Seismos): 50 (0-0-2)
Goodwood Cup winner (Cavalryman): 068 (0-0-3)
AJC Metropolitan Handicap winner (Junoob): 000060 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Melbourne Cup, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in Caufield Cup, finishing 230
5 of 7 Australian-trained winners ran in Turnbull Stakes, finishing 71014
5 of 7 Australian-trained winners ran in Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, finishing 22421
5 of 7 Australian-trained winners ran in the Memsie Stakes, finishing 41056
4 of 7 Australian-trained winners ran in Cox Plate last time, finishing 1973
The last 3 European-trained winners ran in Geelong Cup last time, finishing 111
2 of 2 French-trained winners ran in Prix Kergolay, finishing 19
French-trained runners: 2-1-8
Irish-trained runners: 1-3-12
British-trained runners: 0-6-38
Hong Kong-trained runners: 0-0-1
Alain Royer-Dupre (1-1-3) trained Americain to win it in 2010 and place in 2011.
Robert Hickmott (1-1-11) & Gai Waterhouse (1-1-11) have trained the past 2 winners. Both horses were originally trained in Britain, and began their careers in a Newbury maiden.
Bart Cummings (1-1-15) has trained the winner 12 times, but only once since 2004.
Ed Dunlop (0-2-2) has been narrowly denied twice with Red Cadeaux (2nd in 2011 & 2013).
Marco Botti (0-1-2) trained the 3rd in 2012 & 5th in 2013.
Chris Waller (0-1-6), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-6) & John Hawkes (0-1-11) have each saddled one placed finisher since 2004.
horses drawn 1-7: 3-11-70
horses drawn 8-14: 6-10-70
horses drawn 15+: 1-9-91
Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 in 2009 as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre.
The likely reasoning for this is that horses drawn on the inside will struggle to get a run if they do not break well while horses drawn wide may have to expend a lot of energy to get a good early position.
In the past 10 years 16 of 20 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn in stalls 5 to 14.
6 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting, however 4 of the last 8 winners have been priced 17/1, 16/1, 40/1 & 19/1, so not a particularly strong trends race pricewise.
Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 6.00.
9 of 10 winners were held up in 7th to 16th place at the halfway point
Hold-up horses are favoured but as with all big competitive races you will need luck in running.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 or 5
- Bred outside of New Zealand or Australia (Irish breds done well recently)
- Carrying 53.0 to 56.0 kilos
- Ran in a group race last time (or ran in Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate)
- Ran in last 17 days
- Won last time out or beaten in a group 1
- Posted an RPR of 113+ last time
- Run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (or trained outside Aus/NZ)
- Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
- Finished in the first 2 in a group 1
- Won over 2400m (1M 4F) or further
- Won a race with 14+ runners
- Run in 13 or fewer handicaps
- Course winner (or having first run at Flemington)
- Australian-trained that ran in Cox Plate, Turnbull, Memsie and/or Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes or
- European-trained that won the Geelong Cup
- Tends to be held up
- Drawn 5 to 14
- French trained runners do well.