PAUL NICHOLLS
Last five seasons: (GB only)
2013/14: 118-587 (20%)
2012/13: 131-565 (23%)
2011/12: 138-598 (23%)
2010/11: 134-583 (23%)
2009/10: 115-533 (22%)
Most profitable tracks (last five seasons): Ayr (10-27 +£25); Newbury (chases 20-89 +£5); Newton Abbot (39-135 +£20); Taunton (hurdles 32-92 +£13); Worcester (hurdles 12-27 +£18).
Overview: Having recaptured the trainers’ title last season, Paul Nicholls’ followers will be hoping for more of the same this winter, when those runners with the following criteria could throw up some future profits, especially those sporting headgear in Britain and Ireland for the first time:
Headgear first-time in Britain & Ireland: 25-117 (21%) +£39 (since 2009)
76-180 days rest since last race: 92-340 (27%) +£23
Won over same C&D once before in same race type (chase etc.): 71-245 (29%) +£19
Raced last time at Haydock: 16-55 (29%) +£34, Exeter 35-133 (26%) +£24 or Warwick 12-33 (36%) +£13
Officially rated: 123-126: 46-168 (27%) +£7
Beginners chases: 44-109 (+£6) and maiden events 39-178 (40%) +£4
Do be wary of Nicholls’ runners in Grade 3 events, though, as the strike-rate was a disappointing 7% (19-255) for a -£45 level stakes loss.
NICKY HENDERSON
2013/14: 124-514 (24%)
2012/13: 125-509 (25%)
2011/12: 167-672 (27%)
2010/11: 153-612 (25%)
2009/10: 136-512 (27%)
Most profitable tracks (last five seasons): Doncaster (29-93 +£28); Huntingdon (33-72 +£9); Kempton (Jumps & AW 65-195 +£89); Leicester (11-25 +£20); Market Rasen (20-161 +£13); Newton Abbot (15-34 +£12); Sandown (28-131 +£12).
Overview: A slight dip in total winners and strike-rate last season, but Nicky Henderson will be hungry to recapture the trainers’ title he won in 2012/13, and has the ammunition to achieve that in the big races. In terms of where punters should look for profits, them there are some exceptional areas of interest, including his 6yos which continue to rack up the winners:
6yos: 205-775 (26%) +£173 (since 2009)
Officially rated 127-132: 60-277 (22%) +£77
Last ran 151-330 days ago: 156-481 (32%) +£71
Up in class by 2-3 grades: 81-363 (22%) +£65
2m4f½f -2m5½f: 125-558 +(22%) +£57
Listed events: 33-184 (18%) +£46
Novice events: 343-1109 (31%) +£29
Jeremiah McGrath (26-130, +£22) & Mr N de Boinville (22-83 +£28)
Last ran at Ffos Las (19-59, +£49), Uttoxeter (16-47, +£43) or Wincanton (+£39)
DONALD MCCAIN
2013/14: 142-775 (18%)
2012/13: 141-734 (19%)
2011/12: 153-717 (21%)
2010/11: 100-588 (17%)
2009/10: 88-534 (16%)
McCain’s most profitable tracks (last five seasons): Bangor (70-301 +£42); Kelso (34-131 (+£35); Musselburgh (27-97 +£32); Newcastle (20-86 +£19); Worcester (Hurdles 12-56 +£14).
Overview: It was more of the same for Donald McCain last season in terms of accumulating the most winners within the training ranks (142) – some eight winners more than Jonjo O’Neill (134). While there were areas in which McCain produced his profits for backers, his skill at placing the progeny of the following sires should be noted: Shantou 12-24 +£35; Kings Theatre 15-47 +£25; Beat Hollow 15-57 +£22; Well Chosen 5-8 +£19.
Other profitable areas include:
Won over the same C&D once before in same race type (chase etc.): 39-156 (25%) +£12
Last ran at Ayr: 30-129 (23%) +£18; Newcastle 26-113 (23%) +£17; Doncaster 19-91 (21%) +£12
PHILLIP HOBBS
2013/14: 106-542 (20%)
2012/13: 68-504 (13%)
2011/12: 73-512 (14%)
2010/11: 86-556 (15%)
2009/10: 86-564 (15%)
Hobbs’ profitable tracks (last five seasons): Bangor (13-53 +£17); Newbury (15-115 +£66); Newton Abbot (Chase 15-70 +£20).
Overview: Philip Hobbs was back in the big-time last season, notching his first century of winners since 2008/09. Having also landed the second leg of the autumn double on the Flat with Big Easy, Hobbs’ followers may well be licking their lips in anticipation of another good season. It comes as no surprise that Hobbs won the Cesarewitch recently over a marathon trip on the Flat, as he also excels over the longer trips over jumps, as can be seen via his profitable stats:
3m½f-3m7f: 159-1004 (16%) +£38
6/4 or shorter: 142-265 (54%) +£5
Officially rated 122-124: 36-155 (23%) +£53
Down in class by 3 or 4 grades: 24-83 (29%) +£52
Won over same C&D before in same race type (chase etc.): 48-194 (25%) +£58
Last ran at: Huntingdon (13-52, +£20), Kempton (33-154 +£50)
Headgear first-time in Britain & Ireland: 17-102 (17%) +£20 (since 2009)
DAVID PIPE
2013/14: 90-591 (15%)
2012/13: 104-624 (17%)
2011/12: 101-632 (16%)
2010/11: 65-504 (13%)
2009/10: 102-562 (18%)
Pipe’s profitable tracks (last five seasons): Chepstow (18-76 +£32); Uttoxeter (25-129 +£19); Wincanton (Chases 13-44 +£34)
Overview: A slight drop in winners last season, but still a decent 2013/14, where once again his runners over distances of 3m continue to rack up the profits – in 2014 alone, Pipe’s record over 3m stands at 8-36 (+£25), including 2/1 winner, Famousandfearless, at Uttoxeter in October.
3m: 52-318 (16%) +£82
Officially rated 125-138: 105-665 (16%) +£86
151-240 day rest period: 43-206 (21%) +£64
First run or debut in Britain: 39-177 (22%) +£52
Tony McCoy (25-82, +£27 & Danny Cook 22-132, +£26)
NH Flat Race: 50-218 (23%) +£8
Be wary of Grade 1s: 5-92 (5%) -£45
NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES
2013/14: 77-559 (14%)
2012/13: 74-542 (14%)
2011/12: 70-579 (12%)
2010/11: 97-711 (14%)
2009/10: 70-665 (11%)
Twiston-Davies’ profitable tracks (last five seasons): Newton Abbot (15-65 +£24); Perth (27-105 +£17); Uttoxeter (24-126 +£14).
Overview: As both punters and bookies will be well aware of Twiston-Davies’ strength during the early part of the season in October and November – hence an odds contraction of such runners – it could therefore pay to dig a bit deeper in the search of profits from his string this winter, as the following list highlights:
Class 4 races: 203-1191 (17%) +£17
Class 4 & 2m4f-2m4½f: 48-218 (22%) +£60
Class 4 & hurdles: (+£69) – chases were -£1
Won over same C&D once in same race type (chase etc.): 65-452 (14%) +£60
Last ran at Perth: (20-129, +£22); Uttoxeter (28-152, +£16); Warwick (16-123, +£21)
ALAN KING
2013/14: 75-444 (17%)
2012/13: 60-419 (14%)
2011/12: 82-253 (16%)
2010/11: 84-600 (14%)
2009/10: 76-586 (13%)
King’s profitable tracks (last five seasons): Plumpton (23-59 +£22); Stratford (10-40 +£13); Ascot (Hurdles 10-55 +£52).
Overview: An improvement in strike-rate for Alan King last season, and one area which remains strong for him is in maiden events where he increasingly performs well. In fact, from 2009-2011, King’s record in maidens was just 22-123 (-£37), but from 2010 to this autumn, his record stands at 24-84 (+£78), suggesting there is plenty of value around.
Maidens: 46-207 (22%) +£40
3yos: 28-102 (27%) +£4
Wayne Hutchinson: 171-884 (19%) +£65 (apart from NH Flat Races 12-97, -£54)
JONJO O’NEILL
2013/14: 134-810 (17%)
2012/13: 90-705 (13%)
2011/12: 97-649 (15%)
2010/11: 94-750 (13%)
2009/10: 105-723 (15%)
O’Neill’s profitable tracks (last five seasons): Cheltenham (20-147 +£34); Newton Abbot (27-136 +£14); Stratford (24-124 +£32); Ffos Las (Hurdles 17-82 +£10).
Overview: A career best season for Jonjo O’Neill last time around in terms of numbers (134), and he carried on from he left off in this new season, currently leading the Trainers’ Championship with 47 winners. There are also plenty of profits to be found via O’Neill’s runners, including over distances of around 3m-3m3f:
3m½f-3m3½f: 93-483 (19%) +£82
Grade 1: 11-42 (26%) +£46
Last ran at Taunton: (13-40, +33); Towcester (29-128, +£24); Fontwell (16-87, +£23); Uttoxeter (54-288, +£19)
Pulled up last time: 42-297 (14%) +£38
VENETIA WILLIAMS
2013/14: 86-574 (15%)
2012/13: 90-533 (17%)
2011/12: 52-401 (13%)
2010/11: 38-372 (10%)
2009/10: 46-404 (11%)
Williams’ profitable tracks (last five seasons): Hereford (13-65 +£25); Huntingdon (11-71 +£55); Leicester (Chases 9-21 +£10); Warwick (13-75 +£9).
Overview: Successful back-to-back seasons for Venetia Williams, where she topped the £1m in prize money for only the second time in her career last term. While she had a disappointing January earlier this year, she can also be relied upon to step things up during that period:
January: 70-395 (18%) +£105 (since 2009)
2m1½f-2m3½f: 45-251 (19%) +£31
Officially rated 110-116: 48-265 (18%) +£37
Drop in class by 1 grade: 79-407 919%) +£62
Liam Treadwell 41-246 (17%) +137
Be wary of Grade 1s: 0-30 (-£30)
WILLIE MULLINS (IRE ONLY)
2013/14: 185-665 (28%)
2012/13: 193-595 (32%)
2011/12: 138-498 (28%)
2010/11: 106-467 (23%)
2009/10: 146-545 (27%)
Mullins’ profitable tracks (last five seasons): Gowran Park (37-120 +£53); Navan (Hurdles +£9); Punchestown (NHF 22-67 +£22); Tramore (Chase +£10-19 +£10).
Overview: Another successful season for Mullins last time around courtesy of 185 winners, following the 193 in 2012/13. There aren’t many weaknesses in Mullins’ armour, as the master handler remains strong in all departments, though there are still several areas in which punters could exploit. For instance in Britain, Mullins’ performers in the 13/8 to 9/4 delivered at 152-412 (37%) for a +£35 level stakes profit - here are some more profitable angles based on his runners in both Ireland and Britain:
5yos: 296-806 (37%) +£56
Debut for Mullins or first time out: 108-204 (38%) +£20
Won last time: 327-871 (38%) +£41
NOEL MEADE (IRE ONLY)
2013/14: 45-367 (12%)
2012/13: 47-344 (14%)
2011/12: 59-254 (23%)
2010/11: 53-314 (17%)
2009/10: 59-414 (14%)
Meade’s profitable tracks (last five seasons): Down Royal (19-85 +£35); Downpatrick (18-59 +£15).
Overview: It has to be said that last season was a touch disappointing for Noel Meade both in terms of winners and strike-rate, while finding clear angles to follow his string remain hard to nail. However, there were a few clues, namely that Meade struck three times as often in non-handicaps (18%) than in handicaps (6%), while Down Royal continued to prove profitable. It’s also worth noting when first-time headgear was applied, as his runners struck at 10-91 (11%) +£22.
DESSIE HUGHES (IRE ONLY)
2013/14: 57-439 (13%)
2012/13: 51-366 (14%)
2011/12: 34-400 (9%)
2010/11: 52-475 (11%)
2009/10: 44-421 (10%)
Hughes’ profitable tracks (last five season): Kilbeggan (27-137 +£40).
Overview: A career-best tally last season clearly showed that Dessie Hughes remains a trainer to be reckoned with, and non-handicaps may be where to concentrate, as he struck at 14% compared to just 7% in handicaps.
Last ran at Clonmel: (13-93, +£8); Tramore (12-52, +£47)
46 to 60-day break 24-168 (14%) +£37
5lb jockey’s claim: 32-250 (13%) +£11
GORDON ELLIOTT (IRE ONLY)
2013/14: 56-436 (13%)
2012/13: 54-329 (16%)
2011/12: 40-354 (11%)
2010/11: 62-407 (15%)
2009/10: 26-261 (10%)
Elliott’s profitable tracks (last five years): Down Royal (Hurdles 16-75 +£11); Leopardstown (11-84 +£23); Punchestown (19-137 +£9).
Overview: Bumper events are always races to look out for Gordon Elliott’s runners, and the pattern continued in 2014 where his string in this sphere struck at 15-49 (31%) for a +£23 level stakes profit, including recent 7/1 winner, Mr Steadfast, at Carlisle in October.
NH Flat races: 52-195 (27%) +£72
Grade 3 & Listed events: 21-135 (16%) +£63
Officially rated 119-125: 58-243 (24%) +£44
HENRY DE BROMHEAD (IRE ONLY
2013/14: 48-315 (15%)
2012/13: 32-220 (15%)
2011/12: 34-181 (19%)
2010/11: 19-183 (10%)
2009/10: 23-165 (14%)
De Bromhead’s profitable tracks (last five years): Clonmel (12-65 +£27); Cork (13-62 +£5); Killarney (16-70 +£7).
Overview: A yard churning out an increasing number of winners, resulting in a career best tally of 48 last season, though non-handicaps remains the area to look for his winners (160-946 17%) – handicaps were 33-385 (9%). There was still a level stakes loss in non-handicaps, however, so further clues are required in seeking the profits, the main one being when De Bromhead drops his runners in trip:
Down in trip 0.5f to 2f from last time: 45-199 (27%) +£77
Ran last time at Listowel (10-34 +£57); Killarney (16-63 +£11)
31-45 day rest period: 43-231 (19%) +£45
Social Networking Bookmarks