OLD ROAN CHASE TRENDS 2014
The Betfred Monetīs Garden Old Roan Chase is a grade 2 handicap chase run over 2M 4F and it takes place at Aintree on Saturday, 25th October. The Ryanair and Melling Chases have proven the best guides to this race.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-4
6yo: 1-0-6
7yo: 1-2-15
8yo: 2-6-19
9yo: 2-2-15
10yo: 2-1-11
11yo+: 2-1-6
horses aged 5 to 8: 4-9-44
horses aged 9 to 12: 6-4-32
The only 2 winners aged younger than 8 were grade 1 chase winners in past 12 months.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-0 or more: 6-8-32
horses carrying 10-13 or less: 4-5-44
8 of 10 winners (last 5) carried 10-10 or more.
Top Weight: 2512414326 (2-2-10)
Official Ratings
horses rated 154 or higher: 6-8-31
horses rated 153 or lower: 4-5-42
horses officially rated 150 or higher have won the last 8 runnings.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had been off the track for over 150 days
8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 147+ on last completed start
10 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (8 had run in 5 or fewer)
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase (exception was Monet's Garden in 2010, had won 2 handicap chases - this race twice before)
8 of 10 winners had previously won a grade 1 or 2 chase (one exception had won a listed handicap chase & other had been 2nd in a grade 1 chase)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (exception yet to run in a graded chase)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase in previous 12 months
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F or further (exception finished close 2nd in a 2M 4F handicap chase on last run on first try over 2M 4F+)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Conquisto): 2731 (1-1-4)
Ryanair chase winner (Dynaste): 41 (1-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from Ryanair Chase: 512411 (3-1-6)
Highest placed finisher from Melling Chase: 5142432 (1-2-7)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Uzixandre): 8 (0-0-1)
Game Spirit Chase winner (Module): 6 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 132
2 of 10 winners ran in Amlin Chase 1965, finishing 6F
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's December Gold Cup, finishing 6P
2 of 10 winners ran in Ascot Chase, finishing 11 (both Monet's Garden)
8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival (3 Ryanair, 1 Jewson Novice Chase, 1 Gold Cup, 1 Queen Mother, 1 Grand Annual & 1 Byrne Group Plate)
5 of 10 winners ran at that year's Aintree National meeting (3 Melling Chase, 1 Topham & 1 Grand National)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (1-3-13) has gained 1 win and 3 places from his 13 runners, however he has been responsible for the favourite 6 times in past 10 years.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-4) & Philip Hobbs (1-2-5) have both gained 1 win and 2 places.
Steve Gollings (1-0-1) won this with Conquisto last year.
Peter Bowen (0-2-4) has saddled 2 runners-up and a third from 4 runners.
Brian Ellison (0-1-1) & Sue Smith (0-1-4) have both saddled a placed finisher in past 2 years.
Racing Tactics
5 of 10 winners led from the second fence
Five winners made almost all, while 3 others race prominently.
Price
6 of 10 winners went off 4/1 or shorter, while the other 4 went off between 8/1 & 14/1.
Favourites (2-2-12) gained 2 wins & 2 places from 12 runners, giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 7 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 or older
- Carrying 10-10 or more
- Officially rated 150 or higher
- Having first run this season
- Posted an RPR of 147+ on last completed start
- Run in 5 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 1)
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Won a grade 1 or 2 chase in past 12 months
- Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
- Ran in a chase at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival (ideally Ryanair)
- Finished in first 3 in Melling Chase last time
- Trained by Philip Hobbs, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Peter Bowen
- Likes to lead or race prominently.
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