BREEDERS' CUP MILE TRENDS 2014

[ganjaman2]

Wise Dan, who has won the last 2 renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, will not be returning this year to defend his title. This is a race that the French have done particularly well in, winning 5 of the last 12, with the other 7 going to the home team.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-4-23
4yo: 4-9-46
5yo: 2-5-34
6yo+: 3-2-15
No very strong stat on the ages of winners.
American-trained 3yos (0-1-8) have a poor record, gaining just 1 place from 8 runners.

Gender


Fillies/mares (3-3-12) have a fine record in this race, gaining 4 wins and 3 places from just 13 runners since 2003, though these stats are skewed by the fact that Goldikova has won 3 runnings. Since 2003, French-trained females have a record of 4-3-9.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (only 3 won)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 116+ last time (2 exceptions posted RPR's of 111 and 113 last time)
10 of 10 winners had last run 20 to 50 days ago
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times that year
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice that year
10 of 10 winners had won over a mile
10 of 10 winner had won a grade/group 1 or 2
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had won grade/group 1
10 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1 that year
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 that season


The 10 winners had collectively had 53 prior starts the season they won this, they finished in first 3 in 45 of those 53 starts

Other Races


Woodbine Mile winner (Trade Storm): 425211 (2-2-6)
Fourstardave H'cap winner (Seek Again): 0230611 (2-2-7)
Queen Anne Stakes winner (Toronado): 001 (1-0-3)
Del Mar Mile winner (Tom's Tribute): 23735 (0-3-5)
Eddie Read Stakes winner (Tom's Tribute): 023 (0-2-3)
Shoemaker's Mile winner (Obviously): 20063 (0-2-5)
City Of Hope Stakes winner (Big Bane Theory): 6820736 (0-2-7)
Citation Handicap winner (Silentio): 26 (0-1-2)
American Handicap winner (Obviously): 35 (0-1-2)
Previous year's Hollywood Derby winner (Seek Again): 043 (0-1-3)
First Lady Stakes winner (Dayatthespa): 77 (0-0-2)
5 of 7 North American-trained winners ran in Maker's Mile, finishing 11141
4 of 7 North American-trained winners (last 4) ran in Woodbine Mile, finishing 2711
3 of 7 North American-trained winners ran in Shadwell Turf Mile, finishing 412
2 of 7 North American-trained winners ran in Shoemakers BC Mile, finishing 26
2 of 7 North American-trained winners ran in Frank E Kilroe Mile, finishing 21
2 of 7 North American-trained winners ran in Woodford Res Turf Classic, finishing 91
2 of 7 North American-trained winners ran in Firecracker Handicap, finishing 11
3 of last 4 European-trained winners ran in Prix Jacques Le Marois, finishing 112
Goldikova has won the Prix Rothschild en route to win this 3 years in a row

Trainers


North American-trained runners: 7-15-81
French-trained runners: 3-3-13
Irish-trained runners: 0-2-10
British-trained runners: 0-0-14


Freddie Head (3-1-5) won this for 3 years back to back with Goldikova.
Christophe Clement (0-2-3) saddled the runner-up in 2010 & 2013.
Aidan O’Brien (0-2-10) has yet to win this race but has had 2 placed finishers from his 10 runners since 2004.
James Cassidy (0-1-1), Gary Mandella (0-1-2), Kiaran McLaughlin (0-1-2) & Bill Mott (0-1-7) have all filled one place in last 10 years.

Price


No strong trend on the prices with winner’s SP ranging from 6/4 to 50/1.
Favourites (4-4-11) have won 4 of the last 10 (3 of the 4 were returning winners), giving a level stakes profit of 0.18.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French fillies/mares do well
- Had last run 20 to 50 days ago
- Finished in the first 3 last time (posting RPR of 116+)
- Run 4 to 6 times this year, winning at least twice
- Finished in first 3 on all starts in 2014
- Won a grade/group 1 or 2 over a mile in 2014
- Finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1 in 2014
- Finished in first 2 in Prix Jacques Le Marois, Maker’s Mile and/or Woodbine Mile
- First 3 in Frank E Kilroe, Shadwell Turf Mile and/or Firecracker Handicap
- Trained in France (especially by Freddie Head).