BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT TRENDS 2014

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The Xpressbet Breeder’s Cup Sprint is run over 6 furlongs on dirt and is not a race that the European raiders have done well in. Sheikh Albadou’s win in 1991 is still their only victory to date, however runners from this side of the Atlantic are rare, especially now a turf sprint has been added to the Breeders’ Cup.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-4-22
4yo: 5-7-47
5yo: 2-5-30
6yo+: 1-4-13
No strong trends on ages, though horses aged 3 or 4 have won 21 of the 30 previous runnings of the Sprint.

Gender


Fillies/mares (0-0-2) have won the race 3 times in its history (87, 90 & 95) but both female runners in the past 10 renewals have finished unplaced.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had been off the track for at least 21 days
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ in last 2 runs
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 112+ last time out (exception was an easy winner of only previous run that year)
8 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times that year
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F (exception had won over 5F & 7F)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 (exception yet to run in a grade 1)

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Secret Circle): 51789 (1-0-5)
Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes winner (Rich Tapestry): 8424317 (1-2-7)
Forego Stakes winner (Palace): 9183 (1-1-4)
True North Handicap winner (Palace): 17 (1-0-2)
Potrero Grande Handicap winner (Big Macher): 918 (1-0-3)
Alfred G Vanderbilt Handicap winner (Palace): 1705 (1-0-4)
Bing Crosby Stakes winner (Big Macher): 235398 (0-3-6)
Vosburgh Stakes winner (Private Zone): 2070820 (0-2-7)
Remington Park Sprint Cup winner (Mico Margarita): 08 (0-0-2)
Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes winner (Work All Week): 75066640 (0-0-8)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Sunshine Millions Sprint, finishing 441
2 of 10 winners ran in the Forego Stakes last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Alfred G Vanderbilt Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Santa Anita Sprint Championship last time, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Malibu Stakes, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in Sensational Star Stakes, finishing 22
2 of last 3 winners aged 3 ran in Carry Back Stakes, finishing 22

Santa Anita BC Sprints


The Breeders’ Cup has been held at Santa Anita 7 times, and it can be illuminating to see if they are any trends specific to those 7 runnings (though 2 were run on Pro-Ride not dirt).
Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes winner (Rich Tapestry): 4147 (1-0-4)
True North Handicap winner (Palace): 37 (0-1-2)
Potrero Grande Handicap winner (Big Macher): 28 (0-1-2)
Vosburgh Stakes winner (Private Zone): 0720 (0-1-4)
Alfred G Vanderbilt Handicap winner (Palace): 905 (0-0-3)
Forego Stakes winner (Palace): 4086 (0-0-4)
Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes winner (Work All Week): 6640 (0-0-4)
2 of 7 winners ran in Pat O'Brien Handicap, finishing 30
The draw stats for the 7 runnings at Santa Anita:
horses drawn 6 or below: 4-7-42
horses drawn 7 or higher: 3-7-38

Trainers


Bob Baffert (3-0-9) trained Midnight Lute to win the back to back runnings in 2007 & 2008 and he also won it with Secret Circle to win this in 2013, who will look to also retain the title.
David Fawkes (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2010.
Steve Asmussen (0-0-5) has seen all 5 of his runners since 2004 finish unplaced.

Price


No strong trends on the prices of the winners.
Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of the last 10.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Run 4 to 8 times this year
- Finished in the first 2 in a graded race last time
- Posted an RPR of 112+ last time out
- Had won over 6F
- Won a grade 1 or 2 over 6 or 7 furlongs
- Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1
- Finished in first 4 in Smile Sprint, Sunshine Millions and/or Alfred G Vanderbilt H’cap
- 3yo that finished in first 2 in Carry Back Stakes
- Finished in first 2 in Forego or Santa Anita Sprint Championship last time
- Trained by Bob Baffert.