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    Info CHARLIE HALL CHASE TRENDS 2014

    The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase takes place at Wetherby on Saturday 1st November. Run over 3M 1F, it generally attracts some of the best staying chasers around and winners since 2000 include Gold Cup hero See More Business, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Our Vic and 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State Of Play. In 2012 Silviniaco Conti won the race prior to winning the Betfair Chase on next start.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    5yo: 0-1-3
    6yo: 2-0-4
    7yo: 1-2-7
    8yo: 4-3-19
    9yo: 2-5-16
    10yo: 1-2-14
    11yo+: 0-0-7
    horses aged 5 to 8: 7-6-33
    horses aged 9 or older: 3-7-37
    2 of 3 winners aged 9+ had finished in first 4 in a previous renewal.

    Weight


    There is a penalty structure for this race:
    Winner of a Class 3 weight-for-age chase or a Class 2 handicap chase receives 4lb.
    Winner of a Class 2 weight-for-age chase or a Class 1 handicap chase receives 6lb.
    Winner of a Class 1 weight-for-age chase receives 10lb
    horses carrying 11-10: 1-3-13
    horses carrying 11-3 to 11-6: 6-4-33
    horses carrying 11-0 or less: 3-6-24
    Only one horse carrying max weight of 11-10 has managed to win this in past 10 years, that was the top class, Our Vic.

    Official Ratings


    9 of 10 winners were officially rated 151+

    Recent/Past Form


    7 of 10 winners had run 5 to 11 times over fences


    10 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases
    7 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 runs
    10 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (exception had run once that season)
    10 of 10 winners were having their first start over fences in over 180 days
    10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase
    9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (exception Deep Purple had won over 2M 4F & had never run over further)
    4 of 10 winners had won over CD (1 other was 2nd in this race on only previous run over CD and the other 5 had yet to run over this CD)
    4 of 4 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 or 2 novice chase

    Other Races


    Previous season's winner (Harry Topper): P234 (0-2-4)
    Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase winner (Taquin Du Seuil): 2 (0-1-1)
    JLT Novice Chase winner (Taquin Du Seuil): 4 (0-0-1)
    King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 5 (0-0-1)
    Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup winner (Double Ross): 53 (0-0-2)
    Aintree Bowl winner (Silviniaco Conti): P4 (0-0-2)
    Cotswold Chase winner (Giant Bolster): P3P (0-0-3)
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 28
    2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 74
    2 of 10 winners ran in Cotswold Chase, finishing U6
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 21
    2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Feltham Novice Chase, finishing 12
    2 of 4 second season chaser winners finished in first 2 in graded novice chase at that year's Aintree Festival
    4 of 10 winners ran at a chase at that year's Aintree National Festival

    Trainers


    Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-1-5) trained Ollie Magern to win this race in 2005 & 2007.
    Paul Nicholls (1-2-8) trained Silviniaco Conti this last year, he had previously won back to back runnings in 1999 & 2000 with See More Business.
    Kin Bailey (1-0-1) won this with Harry Topper last year.
    Hilary Parrott (0-2-2) has saddled Wayward Prince to finish 2nd in past 2 renewals.
    Sackville won this for Ireland in 2001 but all 7 Irish-trained runners since 2002 have been unplaced.

    Racing Tactics


    8 of 10 winners led or tracked leaders, though the field size for this race is usually quite small, so most runners are settled not too far from the leader.

    Price


    The last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or below
    The last 10 winners have all come from the first 4 in the betting and have been sent off no bigger than 7/1.
    Favourites (3-6-10) have won 3 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.65.

    Summary:
    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 6 to 8
    - Officially rated 151+
    - Carrying 11-6 or less
    - Finished in first 3 last time
    - Posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 chase starts
    - Having first run of the season
    - Previously run in 5 to 11 chases
    - Second season chasers that won a grade 1 or 2 novice chase do well
    - Won a graded chase worth 25K+
    - Won over 3M+
    - Ran in a chase at Aintree in April
    - Tends to race prominently
    - Priced 7/1 or shorter.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (28th October 2014) 


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