JNWINE.COM CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The grade 1 Jnwine.com Champion Chase takes place at Down Royal on Saturday, 1st November, and is the highlight of the national hunt season for the Northern Irish track. It is run over 3 miles and has been won by some very useful types since 2000, including Kauto Star in 2008 & 2010. The race was abandoned in 2005.





Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings (2003-2013):



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 2-1-3
7yo: 1-3-13
8yo: 3-3-17
9yo: 1-2-16
10yo: 3-1-12
11yo+: 0-2-5
All 3 winners aged 10 had finished in first 4 in a previous running (2 were previous winners)
5 of 6 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred.

Recent/Past Form


7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners were having their first run over fences that season (2 exceptions finished in first 5 in Munster National last time)
7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was runner-up at only start over 3M+ and other 2 had won over 2M 6F and never tackled further)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1 chase (exception had won 2 grade 2 chases)

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Roi Du Mee): 6135 (1-1-4)
Highest placed Cheltenham Gold Cup finisher: 42U121F (2-2-7)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 12F (1-1-3)
Bobyjo Chase winner (On His Own): 1 (1-0-1)
Star Chase winner (Don Cossack): 3 (0-0-1)
Thyestes Handicap Chase winner (On His Own): 4 (0-0-1)
Galway Plate winner (Road To Riches): 7 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 402F
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 31F
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl, finishing U27
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Betfair Chase, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's John Durkan Chase, finishing 12
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Munster National last time, finishing 25
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 12
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the King George, finishing 11
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 17
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 27

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (4-1-7) has trained 4 of the last 7 winners of this.
Gordon Elliot (1-0-2) won this last year with Roi Du Mee.
Mouse Morris (0-3-5) won this in 2001 & has seen 5 of his 7 runners since 2000 make the first 3.
Willie Mullins (0-0-2) & Noel Meade (0-0-3) have seen their collective 5 runners all finish unplaced since 2004.
British-trained runners (5-1-12) have won 5 of the last 7 renewals.

Price


9 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter
Roi Du Mee’s win at 12/1 last year has been the only real surprise result of past 10 years.
Favourites (5-3-11) have won 5 of last 10 runnings and show a level stakes profit of 0.63.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 6 to 8 or aged 9+ & previously finished in first 4 in the race
- Having first run over fences this season
- Finished 1st or 2nd on last completed start
- Won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Previously won or placed in a grade 1 chase
- Won over at least 2M 6F (ideally won over 3M+)
- Ran in previous season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, Lexus, Aintree Bowl and/or Betfair Chase
- Trained in Britain & ran in previous season’s King George, Ascot and/or Melling Chase
- Trained by Paul Nicholls
- Priced 7/1 or shorter.