NOVEMBER HANDICAP TRENDS 2014

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The Betfred November Handicap takes place at Doncaster on Saturday, 9th November. It is a class 2 handicap open to 3yos and older, run over 1M 4F. Younger less exposed horses that have been running well lately have been favoured in past 10 years.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 3-6-43
4yo: 4-14-80
5yo: 2-5-44
6yo+: 1-5-54
3 & 4 year olds have a combined record of 7-20-123


horses aged 5 or older have a combined record of 3-10-98
The only horse aged older than 5 to win this since 2000 was Conduct last year, who had had just 5 previous career starts.

Weights


horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-2-16
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-4-40
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-13-84
horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 1-7-67
horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-4-14
8 of last 10 winners carried 8-10 to 9-6.
Top Weight: 60057090070 (0-0-11)

Official Ratings


horses rated 100 or more: 0-3-26
horses rated 89 to 99: 10-18-138
horses rated 88 or less: 0-9-57
The last 10 winners of this race have been officially rated 93 to 99.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that year
9 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last 2 starts
6 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 3 starts (3 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd last time out)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR over 1M 2F+ on 1 of last 2 starts


10 of 10 winners had their last run between 14 and 60 days ago
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or 3 handicap last time out


7 of 10 winners had last run at Doncaster or Newmarket
8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicaps (1 exception had won 4)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 3F+ (exception had won over 1M 2F & having first run over 1M 3F+)
8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 handicap (2 exceptions placed in a class 2 handicap in their previous 2 runs)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had contested a class 2 handicap but no higher (1 exception had run in a listed race)
8 of last 10 winners (at Doncaster) had won or placed at the track (2 exceptions making course debut)

Other Races


horses that finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th in previous year's running: 910195855 (2-0-9)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's November Handicap, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Gordon's Stakes Handicap, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners ran in crownhotel-bawtry.com Handicap, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in Caravan Chairman's Charity Cup, finishing 14
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in a 1M 4F class 3 handicap at Newmarket in October, finishing 91

Trainers


Brian Ellison (1-1-11) & Ralph Beckett (1-0-2) won the race in 2004 & 2005 respectively while William Haggas (1-0-2) & Michael Appleby (1-0-1) have won the last 2 renewals.
Andrew Balding (0-3-5) has seen 4 of his 5 representatives finish in the top 5.
Amanda Perrett (0-2-8) & Saeed Bin Suroor (0-2-12) have both saddled a couple of placed finishers since 2004.
Luca Cumani (0-1-1) 3 runners since 2000 have finished 5th-6th-2nd.

Draw (excludes 2006, when race run at Windsor)


horses drawn 1 to 8: 2-15-72
horses drawn 9 to 16: 3-7-72
horses drawn 17 or higher: 4-5-57
All 4 winners drawn 17 or higher did so on soft or heavy ground.
The last 3 times the race has been run on ground with good in description, winner has been drawn between 8 and 14.

Racing Tactics (excludes 2006, when race run at Windsor)


4 of 10 winners raced in touch or in midfield
4 of 10 winners were held up towards rear
1 of 10 winners made all

Price


No strong trends based on prices for this race.
This is a terrible race for favourites (0-1-11) with no winner in the last 18 years and only 1 of 11 making the frame since 2004.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 3 or 4
- Officially rated 93 to 99
- Carrying 8-10 to 9-6
- Run 4 to 7 times in 2014
- Finished in first 3 on one or both of last 2 starts
- Posted a career high RPR of 100+ in last 2 starts
- Had latest start at Doncaster or Newmarket
- Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning 1 to 3)
- Previously won a class 2 or 3 handicap
- Won over 1M 3F+
- Has won or placed at Doncaster (or having first run here)
- Finished in first 5 in Gordon’s Stakes Handicap or 2013 November Handicap
- Hold-up horses preferred
- Trained by Andrew Balding, William Haggas or Michael Appleby
- Drawn 17 or higher (on soft) or drawn 8 to 14 on ground with good in description
- Favourite has a poor record.