BETFAIR CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The Betfair Chase takes place at Haydock on Saturday, 22nd November. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 3 miles and has been won by Kauto Star four times and also by another Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Silviniaco Conti & Cue Card have won the last 2 runnings and are both entered again this year.





Below we take a look at the trends for the 9 previous runnings:





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 2-1-3
7yo: 2-4-15
8yo: 1-2-19
9yo: 2-2-14
10yo: 1-1-4
11yo+: 1-0-4
horses aged 6 have gained 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runners, all 3 were French bred.
3 of 4 winners aged 9+ had finished 1st or 2nd in a previous Betfair Chase, exception was Snoopy Loopy who benefitted from a final fence fall from Kauto Star.

Breeding


French Bred: 5-6-22
Irish Bred: 3-4-23
British Bred: 1-0-14
Record of French breds aged 6 or 7: 3-5-10
Record of French breds aged 8 or older: 2-1-12 (both wins from Kauto Star)

Recent/Past Form


8 of 9 winners had had 0 or 1 run that season
9 of 9 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start
7 of 9 winners posted an RPR of 168+ on last completed start


7 of 9 winners had run 6 to 15 times over fences (2 exceptions were Kauto Star winning it for 3rd & 4th time)
7 of 9 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 9 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 chase

Other Races


Previous year's winner (Cue Card): 61U3 (1-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 331U11236 (3-1-9)
King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 31U124 (2-1-6)
Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 331U14224 (2-2-9)
Denman Chase winner (Harry Topper): 1323 (1-2-4)
Previous season's Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Holywell): 12 (1-1-2)
Ryanair Chase winner (Dynaste): 21 (1-1-2)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Menorah): 76431 (1-0-5)
Lexus Chase winner (Bobs Worth): 2255 (0-2-4)
Previous season's Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): 2 (0-1-1)
Argento Chase winner (Giant Bolster): 2 (0-1-1)
Aintree Bowl Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 235 (0-1-3)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 353 (0-0-3)
6 of 9 winners ran in previous season's King George, finishing 211535
4 of 9 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 1113
3 of 9 winners ran in Old Roan Chase, finishing 123
3 of 9 winners ran in Charlie Hall Chase last time, finishing 231
2 of 9 winners ran in Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 4P

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (5-1-10) saddled Kauto Star to win it 4 times and also trained Silviniaco Conti to win it in 2012 and finish 3rd in 2013.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) has saddled Imperial Commander to finish 1st & 2nd.
Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) won the race last year with Cue Card.
David Pipe (0-2-3) has trained the 2nd in 2008 & 2012 and 3rd in 2009.
Nicky Henderson (0-2-2) saddled Long Run to finish 2nd in 2011 & 2012.

Price


8 of 9 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter
The slightly fortuitous Snoopy Loopy and Cue Card (last year) have been the only 2 winners to come from outside the top 3 in the betting.
The favourite (4-2-9) have won 4 of the 8 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 1.52.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred 6yos do well
- Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start
- Posted an RPR of 168+ last time
- Run 6 to 15 times over fences (or won the race previously)
- Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase
- Won over 3 miles or further
- Having first run this season or finished in first 3 in Old Roan or Charlie Hall last time
- Finished in first 5 in 2013 King George.