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    Info BETFAIR CHASE TRENDS 2014

    The Betfair Chase takes place at Haydock on Saturday, 22nd November. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 3 miles and has been won by Kauto Star four times and also by another Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Silviniaco Conti & Cue Card have won the last 2 runnings and are both entered again this year.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the 9 previous runnings:





    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 2-1-3
    7yo: 2-4-15
    8yo: 1-2-19
    9yo: 2-2-14
    10yo: 1-1-4
    11yo+: 1-0-4
    horses aged 6 have gained 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runners, all 3 were French bred.
    3 of 4 winners aged 9+ had finished 1st or 2nd in a previous Betfair Chase, exception was Snoopy Loopy who benefitted from a final fence fall from Kauto Star.

    Breeding


    French Bred: 5-6-22
    Irish Bred: 3-4-23
    British Bred: 1-0-14
    Record of French breds aged 6 or 7: 3-5-10
    Record of French breds aged 8 or older: 2-1-12 (both wins from Kauto Star)

    Recent/Past Form


    8 of 9 winners had had 0 or 1 run that season
    9 of 9 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start
    7 of 9 winners posted an RPR of 168+ on last completed start


    7 of 9 winners had run 6 to 15 times over fences (2 exceptions were Kauto Star winning it for 3rd & 4th time)
    7 of 9 winners had won over 3M+
    8 of 9 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 chase

    Other Races


    Previous year's winner (Cue Card): 61U3 (1-1-4)
    Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 331U11236 (3-1-9)
    King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 31U124 (2-1-6)
    Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 331U14224 (2-2-9)
    Denman Chase winner (Harry Topper): 1323 (1-2-4)
    Previous season's Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Holywell): 12 (1-1-2)
    Ryanair Chase winner (Dynaste): 21 (1-1-2)
    Charlie Hall Chase winner (Menorah): 76431 (1-0-5)
    Lexus Chase winner (Bobs Worth): 2255 (0-2-4)
    Previous season's Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): 2 (0-1-1)
    Argento Chase winner (Giant Bolster): 2 (0-1-1)
    Aintree Bowl Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 235 (0-1-3)
    Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 353 (0-0-3)
    6 of 9 winners ran in previous season's King George, finishing 211535
    4 of 9 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 1113
    3 of 9 winners ran in Old Roan Chase, finishing 123
    3 of 9 winners ran in Charlie Hall Chase last time, finishing 231
    2 of 9 winners ran in Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 4P

    Trainers


    Paul Nicholls (5-1-10) saddled Kauto Star to win it 4 times and also trained Silviniaco Conti to win it in 2012 and finish 3rd in 2013.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) has saddled Imperial Commander to finish 1st & 2nd.
    Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) won the race last year with Cue Card.
    David Pipe (0-2-3) has trained the 2nd in 2008 & 2012 and 3rd in 2009.
    Nicky Henderson (0-2-2) saddled Long Run to finish 2nd in 2011 & 2012.

    Price


    8 of 9 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter
    The slightly fortuitous Snoopy Loopy and Cue Card (last year) have been the only 2 winners to come from outside the top 3 in the betting.
    The favourite (4-2-9) have won 4 of the 8 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 1.52.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - French bred 6yos do well
    - Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start
    - Posted an RPR of 168+ last time
    - Run 6 to 15 times over fences (or won the race previously)
    - Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase
    - Won over 3 miles or further
    - Having first run this season or finished in first 3 in Old Roan or Charlie Hall last time
    - Finished in first 5 in 2013 King George.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (11th November 2014), neilb (11th November 2014) 


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