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    Info MORGIANA HURDLE TRENDS 2014

    The StanJames.com Morgiana Hurdle is a 2 mile grade 1 hurdle that takes place at Punchestown on Sunday 16th November. It has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times, including Limestone Lad, Brace Inca, Hardy Eustace, Solwhit and, Hurricane Fly, who has won the past 2 renewals but suffered his one of his only 2 defeats on Irish soil in this race in 2009.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 0-0-2
    5yo: 3-1-9
    6yo: 1-1-11
    7yo: 3-2-12
    8yo: 1-0-4
    9yo: 1-0-4
    10yo: 0-0-1
    11yo+: 1-0-2
    5 and 7 year olds both have good record in this. The 3 winners aged 8+ were Hardy Eustace and Hurricane Fly (twice), who had both previously won the Cheltenham and Punchestown Champion Hurdles in their career.
    6 of 7 winners aged 5 to 7 had either won the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle or finished in the first 4 in the Punchestown Champion hurdle that year.

    Gender


    Record of mares: 2245 (0-0-4)
    The 4 mares to run in the race went off at prices of 7/2, 5/2, 50/1 & 50/1.

    Recent/Past Form


    8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 in last hurdles start (both exceptions unplaced in a grade 1 over 2M4F-3M)
    8 of 10 winners had previously posted an RPR of 160+ (last 5 winners did so last time)
    8 of 10 winners (last 7) had not run over hurdles for over 150 days (2 exceptions ran in Tipperary Hurdle last time)
    10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race over 2 miles
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a grade 1 hurdle
    8 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 a grade 1 over this CD)

    Other Races


    Previous season's winner (Hurricane Fly): 23311 (2-1-5)
    Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurriane Fly): 532111 (3-0-6)
    Leopardstown Istabraq Festival Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly: 5311 (2-0-4)
    Champion Hurdle winner (Jezki): 31 (1-0-2)
    WKD Hurdle winner (Little King Robin): 313 (1-0-3)
    7 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, finishing 2521311
    5 of 10 winners ran in the Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown, finishing 22141
    5 of 10 winners ran in Champion Hurdle, finishing 36431
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing F912
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Morgiana, finishing 11
    7 of 10 winners ran at that year's Cheltenham Festival (5 Champion Hurdle, 1 World Hurdle & 1 County Hurdle)

    Punchestown Festival


    Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Jezki): 1111 (4-0-4)
    Record of horses that won or placed in Punchestown Champion Hurdle: 31311111 (6-0-8)
    Highest placed finisher in Punchestown Champion hurdle to run in this: 113311111 (7-0-9)
    Herald Champion Novice Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 1433 (1-0-4)
    7 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 4112211
    7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 at that year's Punchestown Festival

    Trainers


    Willie Mullins (3-1-8) has won the last 3 renewals of the Morgiana (last 2 provided by Hurricane Fly).
    Jessica Harrington (0-0-4) has seen all 4 of her runners finish unplaced, all 4 went off shorter than 6/1, including 2 favourites.

    Price


    8 of 10 winners were priced 9/2 or lower
    Hardy Eustace 14/1 (‘08) and Harchibald 10/1 (‘04) were the two surprise results.
    Favourites (5-0-10) have won 5 of last 10 renewals but show a small level stakes loss of 0.83.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Gelding
    - Finished in the first 3 in a graded hurdle last time out
    - Has posted an RPR of 160+ over hurdles (ideally did so last time)
    - Won a 2M grade 1 hurdle
    - Course winner
    - Finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle
    - Ran in 2014 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle or Aintree Hurdle
    - First 2 in 2014 Punchestown Champion Novice or Champion Hurdle
    - Trained by Willie Mullins
    - From first 3 in the betting.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    neilb (11th November 2014) 


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