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    Info TROYTOWN HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2014

    The Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase takes place at Navan on Sunday 23rd November and is one of the highlights of Navan’s National Hunt calendar. A grade B handicap chase run over 3 miles it is a strong trends race with the majority of winners being unexposed chasers prominent in the market.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 1-1-2
    6yo: 1-3-19
    7yo: 3-9-52
    8yo: 2-5-48
    9yo: 2-7-36
    10yo: 1-2-15
    11yo+: 0-0-5
    horses aged 5 to 7: 5-13-73
    horses aged 8+: 5-14-104
    All 3 winners aged 9+ had run in 12 or fewer chases (and 3 or fewer handicap chases).

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 9-25-143
    French bred: 1-1-15
    British bred: 0-1-16
    Other: 0-0-3
    Irish bred horses have won 9 of 10, though they represented almost 80.8% of total runners.
    Both French bred horses to make the frame were aged 7.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 10-10+: 2-11-72
    horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-16-105
    2008 winner, Notre Pere, and 2012 winner, Tofino Bay, have been the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9. Notre Pere subsequently won the Welsh National and the grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup while Tofino Bay won a grade 2 novice chase and finished runner-up in the 4M novice chase at Cheltenham & the 3M grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown.
    Top Weight: 37055349456 (0-4-12)

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 133 or higher: 2-7-42
    horses rated 118 to 132: 7-13-110
    horses rated 97 to 117: 1-7-25
    8 of last 9 winners were officially rated between 118 and 134.

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners had last run in past 30 days
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last chase start
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (9 had won over 2M 6F+)
    6 of 10 winners had previously won at Navan (2 of 4 others had finished 2nd or 3rd on all course chase starts)
    8 of 10 winners (last 6) had previously run in 10 or fewer chases (exceptions had run in 12 & 14)
    9 of 10 winners had won no more than twice over fences
    10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
    9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exceptions had won 2 handicap chases)
    8 of 10 winners were second season chasers (exceptions were 1st & 3rd season chasers)
    7 of 10 winners had contested a Grade B or higher chase (2 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle)

    Other Races


    Grand National Trial H'cap Chase winner (Folsom Blue): PU4 (0-1-3)
    Roscommon On-Course Vets H'cap Chase winner (Dushrembrandt): 8P7 (0-0-3)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H'cap Chase winner (My Murphy): P08 (0-0-3)
    2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Grand National, finishing 30
    2 of 10 winners ran in Killiney Novice Chase, finishing 35
    2 of 10 winners ran in Topaz Novice Chase, finishing 15
    5 of last 8 ran in a handicap chase at Punchestown Festival, finishing P1P38 (one other won a hurdle at the festival)

    Trainers


    Tony Martin (1-2-7) has trained the winner and 2 places in past 7 runnings.
    Willie Mullins (1-2-11), Ted Walsh (1-1-3), Christy Roche (1-0-3) & Jim Dreaper (1-0-3) have all trained the winner once in past 10 years.
    Terrence O’Brien (0-2-3) has saddled Glenquest to be placed in 2010 & 2012.
    Noel Meade (0-1-19) has managed just 1 place from his 19 representatives.
    Charlie Swan (0-0-5) & Gordon Elliot (0-0-5) have seen their collective 10 runners all finish unplaced.

    Price


    9 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
    Cootamundra winning this last year at 25/1 has been the only big shock in past 10 years.
    Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 4.33.



    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Irish bred (or French bred 7yo)


    - Aged 5 to 8 (or aged 9+ but run in fewer than 3 handicap chases)
    - Carrying 10-9 or less (or finished in first 4 in a graded chase last time)
    - Officially rated 118 to 134
    - Finished in the first 5 on last completed chase start (posted RPR of 125+)
    - Ran in the last 30 days
    - Won over 2M 6F+
    - Course winner
    - Run in 10 or fewer chases (winning 1 to 4)
    - Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than 1)
    - Second season chaser
    - Previously contested a Grade B or higher chase
    - Ran in a handicap chase at 2014 Punchestown Festival
    - Trained by Tony Martin, Ted Walsh or Willie Mullins
    - Priced 10/1 or below.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (18th November 2014) 


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