The Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase takes place at Navan on Sunday 23rd November and is one of the highlights of Navan’s National Hunt calendar. A grade B handicap chase run over 3 miles it is a strong trends race with the majority of winners being unexposed chasers prominent in the market.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
horses aged 5 to 7: 5-13-73
horses aged 8+: 5-14-104
All 3 winners aged 9+ had run in 12 or fewer chases (and 3 or fewer handicap chases).
Irish bred: 9-25-143
French bred: 1-1-15
British bred: 0-1-16
Irish bred horses have won 9 of 10, though they represented almost 80.8% of total runners.
Both French bred horses to make the frame were aged 7.
horses carrying 10-10+: 2-11-72
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-16-105
2008 winner, Notre Pere, and 2012 winner, Tofino Bay, have been the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9. Notre Pere subsequently won the Welsh National and the grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup while Tofino Bay won a grade 2 novice chase and finished runner-up in the 4M novice chase at Cheltenham & the 3M grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown.
Top Weight: 37055349456 (0-4-12)
horses rated 133 or higher: 2-7-42
horses rated 118 to 132: 7-13-110
horses rated 97 to 117: 1-7-25
8 of last 9 winners were officially rated between 118 and 134.
9 of 10 winners had last run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last chase start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (9 had won over 2M 6F+)
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Navan (2 of 4 others had finished 2nd or 3rd on all course chase starts)
8 of 10 winners (last 6) had previously run in 10 or fewer chases (exceptions had run in 12 & 14)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than twice over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exceptions had won 2 handicap chases)
8 of 10 winners were second season chasers (exceptions were 1st & 3rd season chasers)
7 of 10 winners had contested a Grade B or higher chase (2 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle)
Grand National Trial H'cap Chase winner (Folsom Blue): PU4 (0-1-3)
Roscommon On-Course Vets H'cap Chase winner (Dushrembrandt): 8P7 (0-0-3)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H'cap Chase winner (My Murphy): P08 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Grand National, finishing 30
2 of 10 winners ran in Killiney Novice Chase, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in Topaz Novice Chase, finishing 15
5 of last 8 ran in a handicap chase at Punchestown Festival, finishing P1P38 (one other won a hurdle at the festival)
Tony Martin (1-2-7) has trained the winner and 2 places in past 7 runnings.
Willie Mullins (1-2-11), Ted Walsh (1-1-3), Christy Roche (1-0-3) & Jim Dreaper (1-0-3) have all trained the winner once in past 10 years.
Terrence O’Brien (0-2-3) has saddled Glenquest to be placed in 2010 & 2012.
Noel Meade (0-1-19) has managed just 1 place from his 19 representatives.
Charlie Swan (0-0-5) & Gordon Elliot (0-0-5) have seen their collective 10 runners all finish unplaced.
9 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
Cootamundra winning this last year at 25/1 has been the only big shock in past 10 years.
Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 4.33.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred (or French bred 7yo)
- Aged 5 to 8 (or aged 9+ but run in fewer than 3 handicap chases)
- Carrying 10-9 or less (or finished in first 4 in a graded chase last time)
- Officially rated 118 to 134
- Finished in the first 5 on last completed chase start (posted RPR of 125+)
- Ran in the last 30 days
- Won over 2M 6F+
- Course winner
- Run in 10 or fewer chases (winning 1 to 4)
- Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than 1)
- Second season chaser
- Previously contested a Grade B or higher chase
- Ran in a handicap chase at 2014 Punchestown Festival
- Trained by Tony Martin, Ted Walsh or Willie Mullins
- Priced 10/1 or below.