FIGHTING FIFTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

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The StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle takes place at Newcastle on Saturday 29th November. Punjabi won this in 2008 before going on to win the Champion Hurdle and recent winners, Peddlers Cross, Overturn & My Tent Or Yours, all won it before finishing runner-up in the Cheltenham hurdling showpiece.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-2-6
5yo: 5-5-19
6yo: 2-1-15
7yo: 1-2-15
8yo: 1-1-7
9yo: 0-1-2
10yo+: 0-2-5
horses aged 4 to 6: 8-8-40
horses aged 7+: 2-6-29
5yos have a strong record in this race having won 5 of the last 10 runnings of this race from just over 25% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 runners finished in the first 2 last time out
9 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 146 or higher on last hurdles start
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 15 hurdles
9 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (exception was Harchibald in 2007, he had also won it in 2004)
6 of 6 second season hurdler winners had won a class 1 hurdle at Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals that year
8 of 10 winners (last 8) were officially rated 150+ over hurdles


8 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in a graded hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (1 exception missed Cheltenham that year & other was 7th in Champion Hurdle)
5 of 10 winners contested a 2M grade 1 at that year’s Punchestown Festival

Other Races


Highest placed finisher from Supreme Novices' Hurdle: 113121 (4-1-6)
Ascot Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 1 (1-0-1)
Perth Summer Hurdle winner (Bellgrove): 1 (1-0-1)
Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Zamdy Man): 12 (1-0-2)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 13 (1-0-2)
OLBG Mares Hurdle winner (Aurore D'Estruval): 2 (0-1-1)
Ryanair Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 2 (0-1-1)
Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 3 (0-1-1)
Elite Hurdle winner (Purple Bay): 626535 (0-1-6)
4 of 6 second season hurdler winners ran in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 1212
2 of 6 second season hurdler winners ran in Herald Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 24
2 of 6 second season hurdler ran in Top Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
3 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 451
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Christmas Hurdle, finishing 442
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tipperary Hurdle, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 37
2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Hurdle, finishing 21

Trainers


Nicky Henderson (2-1-5) has trained the winner three times since 2000 (’01, ’08 & ‘13).
John Quinn (1-1-4) saddled Countrywide Flame to win this in 2012 and Cockney Sparrow to finish 2nd in 2013.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-0-3) saddled winner in 2002 and 3rd in 2003 but his 3 runners in last 10 years have all been unplaced.
Paul Nicholls (0-0-4) has yet to win this race.
Irish-trained runners (3-3-13) have won it 3 times, though all 3 were provided by Noel Meade.

Price


9 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting & were priced 4/1 or shorter
Favourite has won 5 of last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 0.33.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5
- Finished in the first 2 last time out (posting RPR of 146+)
- Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Second or third season hurdler
- Officially rated 150+
- Finished in first 5 in a grade 1 at Punchestown Festival or
- Won at 2014 Cheltenham and/or Aintree Festivals
- horse that ran well in 2014 Supreme Novices' Hurdle should be respected
- Trained by Nicky Henderson
- From first 2 in betting.