ROYAL BOND NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2014

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The Bar One Racing Royal Bond Novice Hurdle is the first of three Grade 1 races which take place on the Fairyhouse card on Sunday, 30th November. Always a quality contest, the winner usually goes towards the top of either the Supreme Novices’ or Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle betting for the next year’s Cheltenham Festival. Previous winners include subsequent Champion Hurdlers Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Hurricane Fly & Jezki and also Champion Chase winners Moscow Flyer and Newmill.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-6-27
5yo: 3-8-33
6yo: 1-1-15
7yo+: 0-1-3
4 & 5yos have won 9 of the last 10 runnings of this race, with 4yos holding the best individual record.
In the race’s history only 2 winners were aged 6+, both were unbeaten over hurdles and had won the Irish Champion Bumper.

Gender


All 11 mares (0-0-11) to run in this in past 10 years were unplaced. The last two successful mares of this, had both won the grade 1 Irish Champion Bumper.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception was 2nd in a grade 1 hurdle on last start)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 125+ last time (5 of 6 posted RPR of 138+ in last 2 starts)
9 of 10 winners ran in the last 50 days
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 1 to 3 hurdles previously (two exceptions had run in 4 or 5 hurdles)
10 of 10 winners had won at least once over hurdles
6 of 10 winners had contested a graded hurdle or bumper (3 of 4 exceptions were unbeaten over hurdles)
5 of 10 winners were unbeaten over hurdles (4 of 5 exceptions finished in first 5 in a graded hurdle)
8 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or bumper by 5+ lengths
6 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 exceptions had won a listed or group race on the flat)

Other Races


Weatherbys Ireland GSB INH Flat Race winner (Investmentsuccess): 71 (1-0-2)
Buy Your 2015 Annual Badge Maiden Hurdle winner (Princely Conn): 38259 (0-2-5)
Corrib Oil Maiden Hurdle winner (All Hell Let Loose): 5 (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in Fishery Lane Hurdle, finishing 11
Since 2000 record of highest placed finisher from Punchestown Champion Bumper: 1112231629 (4-4-10)

Trainers


Willie Mullins (3-4-15) has trained 3 of the last 6 winners, had no runner in 2009 and he saddled 2nd & 3rd last year. All 3 of his winners made their racecourse debut in France.
Thomas Mullins (0-1-2) & Dermot Weld (0-1-3) have both saddled 1 placed finisher.

Price


9 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or lower
The last 10 winners all came from first 4 in the betting with 10/1 being the longest priced winner.
Favourites (4-4-10) have won 4 of last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 1.61.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Gelding aged 4 or 5 (especially 4yos)
- Run 1 to 3 times over hurdles (winning at least once)
- Won last time out (or 2nd in a graded hurdle)
- Posted an RPR of 138+ in last 2 starts
- Had last run in the past 50 days
- Won a bumper or a group/listed race on flat
- Won a hurdle or bumper by 5+ lengths
- Ran in a graded bumper/hurdle or unbeaten in completed hurdle starts
- Ran well in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown
- Trained by Willie Mullins
- Priced 7/1 or shorter.