The Bar One Racing Hatton’s Grace Hurdle is a grade 1 run over 2M 4F for 4yos and upwards. It is one of the three grade 1 events taking place at Fairyhouse on Sunday 30th November. The race has often brought together top class 2 mile hurdlers as well as the best staying hurdlers and has been won by Brave Inca, Limestone Lad, Solerina, Hurricane Fly & Jezki since 2000.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
The only 2 horses younger than 6 to ever win this have been Istabraq (1997) & Jezki (2013), both of whom went on to win the Champion Hurdle that season.
horses aged 6 to 8 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings. The last horse aged over 8 to win this was Limestone Lad in 2002, when winning the race for a third time.
In race’s history, of the six 4yo runners, 2 have placed (both single figure price) and 3 unplaced (3 of 4 double figure prices).
Mares (3-2-9) have gained 4 wins and 2 places from 11 runners since 2003, though those stats are slightly distorted by fact that Solerina accounted for 3 of the 4 successes.
8 of 10 winners won last completed start (2 exceptions finished 3rd in Morgiana & 5th in French Champion Hurdle)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 146+ last time
8 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 7 hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F (exception having first run over further than 2M 1F)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
10 of 10 winners had previously won at Fairyhouse
6 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 4 had finished in first 4 in a class 1 race on flat)
The last 10 winners ran in a grade 1 hurdle at that year’s Punchestown Festival.
Highest placed finisher from Punchestown Champion Hurdle: 131611 (4-0-6)
World Series Hurdle winner (Jetson): 4 (0-0-1)
Highest placed finisher from Punchestown World Series Hurdle: 51445423 (1-0-8)
Mares Champion Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 3 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 6212
3 of 10 winners ran in the World Series Hurdle, finishing 554
2 of 10 winners ran in Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 47
Lismullen Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 112217515 (4-2-9)
WKD Hurdle winner (Little King Robin): 1321 (2-1-4)
Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 428423 (0-1-6)
5 of 10 winners ran at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival (2 Future Champions Novice Hurdle & 3 Festival Hurdle)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Lismullen Hurdle, finishing 111F1
4 of 10 winners ran in last year's race, finishing 1133
3 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, finishing 168
3 of 10 winners ran in Tara Hurdle, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners won a 2M 4F grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse Grand National meeting
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 414
2 of 10 winners ran in the Synergy Solutions Novice Hurdle, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in Boyne Hurdle, finishing F1
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tipperary Hurdle finishing 1F
2 of 10 winners ran in Red Mills Trial Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in WKD Hurdle last time, finishing 11
Willie Mullins (2-2-10) has trained 2 of the last 4 winners and trained the runner-up in other 2 years.
Jessica Harrington (1-0-4) won this last year with Jezki.
The Bowe yard has won the race 6 times since 1999.
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
No winner has gone off higher than 11/2 in the last 10 years.
The favourite (5-2-12) has won 5 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.90.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8
- Mares do well
- Won last time out (posting RPR of 146+)
- Ran in the last 35 days
- Won over 2M 4F
- Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Course winner
- Bumper winner or finished in first 4 in class 1 flat race
- Finished in the first 3 in Lismullen, WKD and/or Morgiana Hurdle last time
- Finished in first 3 in 2013 Hattons Grace, Tara Hurdle and/or Synergy Solutions Novice Hurdle
- Ran in a grade 1 hurdle at the 2014 Punchestown Festival
- Ran in a grade 1 or 2 at 2013 Leopardstown Christmas Festival
- Trained by Willie Mullins
- From the first 3 in the betting (shorter than 6/1).