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    Info DRINMORE NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2014

    The Bar One Racing Drinmore Novice Chase takes the place at Fairyhouse on Sunday 30th November as part of a top quality national hunt card featuring three grade 1’s. It is run over 2M 4F and is the first grade 1 novice chase of the season & always offers clues to the big novice chases at Leopardstown over Christmas.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 1-0-6
    6yo: 5-6-36
    7yo: 4-6-24
    8yo: 0-1-3
    9yo+: 0-0-2
    horses aged 6 or 7 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, including the last 8.
    Since the inaugural running in 1994, only 2 of the 20 winners were not aged 6 or 7 and both those 2 had previously finished 2nd in a grade 1 hurdle.

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception 2nd in grade 2 novice chase)
    9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR over fences last time out
    8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 141+ last time


    8 of 10 winners had last start at Galway, Navan or Punchestown
    10 of 10 winners finished in first 2 on all completed chase starts that season
    9 of 10 winners had run since 22nd October
    10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
    8 of 10 winners had run in 1 or 2 chases prior to this (two exceptions had run in 3 and 4)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
    5 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (3 exception finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle & other 2 were unbeaten in completed hurdles starts)
    9 of 10 winners had had 3 to 6 hurdles starts
    6 of 10 winners had won at Fairyhouse (2 exceptions finished 2nd on all course starts & other 2 were having first course start)

    Other Races


    Gain Support Laois GAA Fundraisers Beginners Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 1PP3 (1-1-4)
    Previous year's Monksfield Novice Hurdle winner (Apache Stronghold): 1 (1-0-1)
    Buck House Novice Chase winner (Alechi Inois): 15 (1-0-2)
    Paddy Power Cash Card & Collect EBF Novice Chase winner (Perfect Gentleman): 8154 (1-0-4)
    Ballybrit Novice Chase winner (Alechi Inois): 6F3 (0-1-3)
    Naas Annual Membership Beginners Chase winner (Real Steel): 33 (0-0-2)
    3 of 10 winners had won a 2M 4F Punchestown chase in Oct/Nov
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Navan Novice Hurdle, finishing 12F
    2 of 10 winners ran in that year's Deloitte Novice Hurdle, finishing 61
    2 of 10 winners ran in WB Gavin Beginners Chase, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in Florida Pearl Novice Chase, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in a Cork chase over 2M 4F Nov, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in Navan EBF Beginners Chase over 2M4F in November, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Nov Hurdle, finishing 73
    2 of 10 winners ran in grade 1 Punchestown World Series Hurdle, finsihing 77
    5 of 10 winners had run in a grade 1 hurdle at that year's Punchestown Festival

    Trainers


    Noel Meade (2-3-9) has won the race 3 times since 2001.
    Gordon Elliot (2-0-2) has seen his 2 runners both taste success, with Jessies Dream in 2010, and Don Cossack last year.
    Willie Mullins (1-0-6) trained the winner in 2012.
    The Hughes yard (0-2-4) has seen 2 of their 4 runners make the frame in past 10 years.



    Price


    9 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting
    No winner has gone off higher than 6/1 in the last 10 years.
    The favourite (5-0-11) has won 5 of last 10 and shows a level stakes profit of 2.68.



    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 or 7
    - Had last run after 22/10/14
    - Won last time out (ideally at Navan, Galway or Punchestown)
    - Posted highest chase RPR of 141+ last time
    - Previously run in 1 or 2 chases
    - Finished in first 2 in all completed chase starts this season
    - Won a chase at Cork or Punchestown in Oct/Nov
    - Won over at least 2M 4F
    - Run in 3 to 6 hurdles races
    - Won a graded race over hurdles (or placed in a grade 1 or 2)
    - Won or placed at Fairyhouse (or having first course start)
    - Ran in Deloitte, Neptune Investments or Cathal Ryan Memorial Novice Hurdle in 2014
    - Ran in a grade 1 hurdle at the 2014 Punchestown Festival
    - Trained by Noel Meade or Gordon Elliot
    - From the first 2 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (27th November 2014) 


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