DRINMORE NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The Bar One Racing Drinmore Novice Chase takes the place at Fairyhouse on Sunday 30th November as part of a top quality national hunt card featuring three grade 1’s. It is run over 2M 4F and is the first grade 1 novice chase of the season & always offers clues to the big novice chases at Leopardstown over Christmas.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-6
6yo: 5-6-36
7yo: 4-6-24
8yo: 0-1-3
9yo+: 0-0-2
horses aged 6 or 7 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, including the last 8.
Since the inaugural running in 1994, only 2 of the 20 winners were not aged 6 or 7 and both those 2 had previously finished 2nd in a grade 1 hurdle.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception 2nd in grade 2 novice chase)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR over fences last time out
8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 141+ last time


8 of 10 winners had last start at Galway, Navan or Punchestown
10 of 10 winners finished in first 2 on all completed chase starts that season
9 of 10 winners had run since 22nd October
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 or 2 chases prior to this (two exceptions had run in 3 and 4)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
5 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (3 exception finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle & other 2 were unbeaten in completed hurdles starts)
9 of 10 winners had had 3 to 6 hurdles starts
6 of 10 winners had won at Fairyhouse (2 exceptions finished 2nd on all course starts & other 2 were having first course start)

Other Races


Gain Support Laois GAA Fundraisers Beginners Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 1PP3 (1-1-4)
Previous year's Monksfield Novice Hurdle winner (Apache Stronghold): 1 (1-0-1)
Buck House Novice Chase winner (Alechi Inois): 15 (1-0-2)
Paddy Power Cash Card & Collect EBF Novice Chase winner (Perfect Gentleman): 8154 (1-0-4)
Ballybrit Novice Chase winner (Alechi Inois): 6F3 (0-1-3)
Naas Annual Membership Beginners Chase winner (Real Steel): 33 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners had won a 2M 4F Punchestown chase in Oct/Nov
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Navan Novice Hurdle, finishing 12F
2 of 10 winners ran in that year's Deloitte Novice Hurdle, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in WB Gavin Beginners Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Florida Pearl Novice Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in a Cork chase over 2M 4F Nov, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Navan EBF Beginners Chase over 2M4F in November, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Nov Hurdle, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners ran in grade 1 Punchestown World Series Hurdle, finsihing 77
5 of 10 winners had run in a grade 1 hurdle at that year's Punchestown Festival

Trainers


Noel Meade (2-3-9) has won the race 3 times since 2001.
Gordon Elliot (2-0-2) has seen his 2 runners both taste success, with Jessies Dream in 2010, and Don Cossack last year.
Willie Mullins (1-0-6) trained the winner in 2012.
The Hughes yard (0-2-4) has seen 2 of their 4 runners make the frame in past 10 years.



Price


9 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting
No winner has gone off higher than 6/1 in the last 10 years.
The favourite (5-0-11) has won 5 of last 10 and shows a level stakes profit of 2.68.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 or 7
- Had last run after 22/10/14
- Won last time out (ideally at Navan, Galway or Punchestown)
- Posted highest chase RPR of 141+ last time
- Previously run in 1 or 2 chases
- Finished in first 2 in all completed chase starts this season
- Won a chase at Cork or Punchestown in Oct/Nov
- Won over at least 2M 4F
- Run in 3 to 6 hurdles races
- Won a graded race over hurdles (or placed in a grade 1 or 2)
- Won or placed at Fairyhouse (or having first course start)
- Ran in Deloitte, Neptune Investments or Cathal Ryan Memorial Novice Hurdle in 2014
- Ran in a grade 1 hurdle at the 2014 Punchestown Festival
- Trained by Noel Meade or Gordon Elliot
- From the first 2 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1.