The 888Sport Tingle Creek Chase takes place at Sandown this Saturday, 6th December. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 2 miles which has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade including Master Minded, Moscow Flyer, Kauto Star, Sizing Europe & Sprinter Sacre.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
horses aged 5 to 7: 8-11-32
horses aged 8+: 2-2-42
All 8 winners aged 5 to 7 were French bred.
Both winners aged 9+ were Irish bred.
French bred: 8-6-30
Irish bred: 2-7-25
German bred: 0-0-5
British bred: 0-0-9
8 of 10 winners were French bred. Moscow Flyer and Sizing Europe were the two Irish bred winners in past 10 years, both had previously won the Champion Chase.
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 159+ (last 6 posted RPR of 166+ last time)
8 of 10 winners had previously run that season (finishing in first 3 in all starts)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase by 16 lengths or more (exception had won a chase by 9L)
9 of 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase (Kauto Star had not previously run in a Grade 1 & Sire De Grugy had won a grade 2)
5 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (all 5 exceptions were French bred, 3 exceptions trained by Nicholls)
5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 others having first run here & one placed in a grade 2 novice hurdle on only course run)
Previous year's winner (Sire De Grugy): 117 (2-0-3)
Champion Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 2211 (2-2-4)
Maghull Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 32121 (2-2-5)
Old Roan Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 13 (1-1-2)
Hallowe'en Novice Chase winner (Vukovar): 1 (1-0-1)
Fortria Chase winner (Twinlight): 14 (1-0-2)
Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 41 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Hinterland): 33 (0-2-2)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (God's Own): 242 (0-2-3)
November Novice Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 3 (0-1-1)
Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Oscar Whisky): 3 (0-1-1)
Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 2 (0-1-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 11F
6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing UF1F41
3 of 10 winners ran in the Game Spirit, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Haldon Gold Cup last time, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11
3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Maghull Novice Chase, finishing 114
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing F1
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Wayward Lad Novices' Chase, finishing 21
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 12
Paul Nicholls (6-2-18) has won 6 of the last 9 runnings. But for Moscow Flyer & Sizing Europe, he would have trained all 10 winners between 2002 and 2011.
Nicky Henderson (1-2-4) saddled Sprinter Sacre to win last year & also a place finisher in 2010 & 2013.
Alan King (0-3-3) has seen his last 3 runners all make the places.
Mick Channon (0-1-1) trained Somersby to finish 2nd last year.
Irish trained runners (2-1-7) have won this in 2004 & 2011.
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
All 10 winners since 2004 went off 6/1 or shorter.
Favourites (7-4-12) have won 7 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 1.79.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10
- Finished in first 3 last time (posting RPR of 166+)
- Ran in past 40 days (or won grade 1 chase at 2013 Cheltenham Festival)
- Won a grade 1 chase
- Previously won a chase by 16 lengths or more
- Won 2013 Tingle Creek, 2014 Game Spirit and/or 2014 Celebration Chase
- Finished in first 4 in Champion Chase, Maghull and/or Arkle
- First 3 in Haldon Gold Cup and/or Melling Chase
- From the first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1, favourite does well)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson.