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    Info TINGLE CREEK CHASE TRENDS 2014

    The 888Sport Tingle Creek Chase takes place at Sandown this Saturday, 6th December. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 2 miles which has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade including Master Minded, Moscow Flyer, Kauto Star, Sizing Europe & Sprinter Sacre.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 0-0-1
    5yo: 3-3-11
    6yo: 2-3-10
    7yo: 3-5-11
    8yo: 0-0-14
    9yo: 1-2-14
    10yo: 1-0-10
    11yo+: 0-0-4
    horses aged 5 to 7: 8-11-32
    horses aged 8+: 2-2-42
    All 8 winners aged 5 to 7 were French bred.
    Both winners aged 9+ were Irish bred.

    Breeding


    French bred: 8-6-30
    Irish bred: 2-7-25
    German bred: 0-0-5
    British bred: 0-0-9
    Other: 0-0-2
    8 of 10 winners were French bred. Moscow Flyer and Sizing Europe were the two Irish bred winners in past 10 years, both had previously won the Champion Chase.

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 159+ (last 6 posted RPR of 166+ last time)
    8 of 10 winners had previously run that season (finishing in first 3 in all starts)
    9 of 10 winners had won a chase by 16 lengths or more (exception had won a chase by 9L)
    9 of 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase (Kauto Star had not previously run in a Grade 1 & Sire De Grugy had won a grade 2)
    5 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (all 5 exceptions were French bred, 3 exceptions trained by Nicholls)
    5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 others having first run here & one placed in a grade 2 novice hurdle on only course run)

    Other Races


    Previous year's winner (Sire De Grugy): 117 (2-0-3)
    Champion Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 2211 (2-2-4)
    Maghull Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 32121 (2-2-5)
    Old Roan Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 13 (1-1-2)
    Hallowe'en Novice Chase winner (Vukovar): 1 (1-0-1)
    Fortria Chase winner (Twinlight): 14 (1-0-2)
    Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 41 (1-0-2)
    Previous season's Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Hinterland): 33 (0-2-2)
    Haldon Gold Cup winner (God's Own): 242 (0-2-3)
    November Novice Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 3 (0-1-1)
    Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Oscar Whisky): 3 (0-1-1)
    Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 2 (0-1-1)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 11F
    6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing UF1F41
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Game Spirit, finishing 111
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Haldon Gold Cup last time, finishing 23
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11
    3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Maghull Novice Chase, finishing 114
    2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing F1
    2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Wayward Lad Novices' Chase, finishing 21
    2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 12

    Trainers


    Paul Nicholls (6-2-18) has won 6 of the last 9 runnings. But for Moscow Flyer & Sizing Europe, he would have trained all 10 winners between 2002 and 2011.
    Nicky Henderson (1-2-4) saddled Sprinter Sacre to win last year & also a place finisher in 2010 & 2013.
    Alan King (0-3-3) has seen his last 3 runners all make the places.
    Mick Channon (0-1-1) trained Somersby to finish 2nd last year.
    Irish trained runners (2-1-7) have won this in 2004 & 2011.

    Price


    10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
    All 10 winners since 2004 went off 6/1 or shorter.
    Favourites (7-4-12) have won 7 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 1.79.



    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10
    - Finished in first 3 last time (posting RPR of 166+)
    - Ran in past 40 days (or won grade 1 chase at 2013 Cheltenham Festival)
    - Won a grade 1 chase
    - Previously won a chase by 16 lengths or more
    - Won 2013 Tingle Creek, 2014 Game Spirit and/or 2014 Celebration Chase
    - Finished in first 4 in Champion Chase, Maghull and/or Arkle
    - First 3 in Haldon Gold Cup and/or Melling Chase
    - From the first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1, favourite does well)
    - Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson.

  2. #2
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: TINGLE CREEK CHASE TRENDS 2014

    Balder Succes 5/2
    Gods Own 9/2
    Oscar Whisky 8/1
    Somersby 9/1
    Dodging Bullets 10/1
    Twinlight 10/1
    Wishfull Thinking 10/1
    Vukovar 12/1
    Ballycasey 14/1
    Claret Cloak 16/1
    Felix Yonger 16/1
    Hinterland 16/1
    Pepite Rose 20/1
    Alderwood 25/1
    Third Intention 25/1
    Williams Wishes 25/1
    Mad Moose 66/1
    Oscar Hill 66/1

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