TINGLE CREEK CHASE TRENDS 2014
The 888Sport Tingle Creek Chase takes place at Sandown this Saturday, 6th December. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 2 miles which has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade including Master Minded, Moscow Flyer, Kauto Star, Sizing Europe & Sprinter Sacre.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 3-3-11
6yo: 2-3-10
7yo: 3-5-11
8yo: 0-0-14
9yo: 1-2-14
10yo: 1-0-10
11yo+: 0-0-4
horses aged 5 to 7: 8-11-32
horses aged 8+: 2-2-42
All 8 winners aged 5 to 7 were French bred.
Both winners aged 9+ were Irish bred.
Breeding
French bred: 8-6-30
Irish bred: 2-7-25
German bred: 0-0-5
British bred: 0-0-9
Other: 0-0-2
8 of 10 winners were French bred. Moscow Flyer and Sizing Europe were the two Irish bred winners in past 10 years, both had previously won the Champion Chase.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 159+ (last 6 posted RPR of 166+ last time)
8 of 10 winners had previously run that season (finishing in first 3 in all starts)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase by 16 lengths or more (exception had won a chase by 9L)
9 of 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase (Kauto Star had not previously run in a Grade 1 & Sire De Grugy had won a grade 2)
5 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (all 5 exceptions were French bred, 3 exceptions trained by Nicholls)
5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 others having first run here & one placed in a grade 2 novice hurdle on only course run)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Sire De Grugy): 117 (2-0-3)
Champion Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 2211 (2-2-4)
Maghull Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 32121 (2-2-5)
Old Roan Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 13 (1-1-2)
Hallowe'en Novice Chase winner (Vukovar): 1 (1-0-1)
Fortria Chase winner (Twinlight): 14 (1-0-2)
Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 41 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Hinterland): 33 (0-2-2)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (God's Own): 242 (0-2-3)
November Novice Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 3 (0-1-1)
Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Oscar Whisky): 3 (0-1-1)
Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 2 (0-1-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 11F
6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing UF1F41
3 of 10 winners ran in the Game Spirit, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Haldon Gold Cup last time, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11
3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Maghull Novice Chase, finishing 114
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing F1
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Wayward Lad Novices' Chase, finishing 21
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 12
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (6-2-18) has won 6 of the last 9 runnings. But for Moscow Flyer & Sizing Europe, he would have trained all 10 winners between 2002 and 2011.
Nicky Henderson (1-2-4) saddled Sprinter Sacre to win last year & also a place finisher in 2010 & 2013.
Alan King (0-3-3) has seen his last 3 runners all make the places.
Mick Channon (0-1-1) trained Somersby to finish 2nd last year.
Irish trained runners (2-1-7) have won this in 2004 & 2011.
Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
All 10 winners since 2004 went off 6/1 or shorter.
Favourites (7-4-12) have won 7 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 1.79.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10
- Finished in first 3 last time (posting RPR of 166+)
- Ran in past 40 days (or won grade 1 chase at 2013 Cheltenham Festival)
- Won a grade 1 chase
- Previously won a chase by 16 lengths or more
- Won 2013 Tingle Creek, 2014 Game Spirit and/or 2014 Celebration Chase
- Finished in first 4 in Champion Chase, Maghull and/or Arkle
- First 3 in Haldon Gold Cup and/or Melling Chase
- From the first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1, favourite does well)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson.
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