The Betfred Becher Handicap Chase, which takes place on Saturday 6th December, is a 3M 2F listed contest run over the Grand National fences. Twice since 2000, the winner of this race has gone on to win the Grand National (Amberleigh House and Silver Birch in a later season).





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-2
6yo: 0-3-8
7yo: 1-2-18
8yo: 1-5-22
9yo: 4-8-44
10yo: 2-2-36
11yo: 0-4-18
12yo+: 2-1-15
6 of 10 winners were aged 9 or 10 though that age bracket accounted for just over 40% of total runners.
The only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2004 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.
Only winner aged over 10 was Hello Bud in 2010 & 2012. Prior to his first win the race, he had finished 5th in previous season’s Becher Chase and also that year's Grand National.

Breeding


Irish bred: 9-17-99
French bred: 1-7-39
GB bred: 0-2-25
Chance Du Roy’s win last year has been on the only non-Irish bred winner in past 10 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-9 or more: 4-11-74
horses carrying 10-8 or less: 6-15-89
There are no very strong trends on the weights, 7 of 10 carried 10-10 or less, while the other 3 carried 11-5 or more.
Top Weight: 541FP155PP (2-1-10)
horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-5-26
horses racing from 7lbs or more out of the handicap: 0-1-7

Official Ratings


horses rated 140 or higher: 3-7-48
horses rated 130 to 139: 6-9-78
horses rated 112 to 127: 1-10-37
5 of last 6 winners were racing off marks between 130 to 139.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start


10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
7 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a NH race


7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in at least 13 chases (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in at least 8 handicap chases (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (2 exceptions were Hello Bud who won it in 2010 & 2012)
6 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls & other was Hello Bud winning it for second time)
8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher
5 of 10 winners (last 4) had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and 1 had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Chance Du Roy): 2UP (0-1-3)
Betfair Cash Out Handicap Chase winner (Ballybough Gorta): 4 (0-1-1)
Miller Howe Cavendish Cup Handicap Chase winner (Balbriggan): 4 (0-1-1)
Foundation Developements Ltd Handicap Chase winner (Mendip Express):6 (0-0-1)
Scottish National winner (Al Co): 5F (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing F5B7
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in previous Becher Chase, finishing 5UF
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase in December, finishing 042
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the previous year's Troytown, finishing 764
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Handicap Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing P8
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase, finishing 02
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing P8P
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 115

Racing Style
9 of 10 winners raced prominently with leaders throughout

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (3-5-17) has trained the winner three times in the past 10 years and had the runner-up in 4 of the other 7.


Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-1-9) saddled Hello Bud to win it in 2010 & 2012 and had Baby Run finish 2nd in 2013.
Philip Hobbs (1-0-4) trained Chance Du Roy to win this last year.
Peter Bowen (0-4-15) has saddled 4 places in past 10 years.
Venetia Williams (0-1-2), Tom George (0-1-3), Sue Smith (0-1-4) & David Pipe (0-1-8) have each trained one placed finisher since 2004.
Irish based trainers (3-2-28) have a good recent record, having won it 3 times in last 8 years.

Price


The last 7 winners were priced between 7/1 & 14/1
Favourites (2-1-11) have won 2 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 3.50.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 9 or 10
- Irish bred
- Officially rated 130 to 139
- Finished in the first 5 on last completed start
- Has run in the last 45 days
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)
- Run at least 13 times over fences
- Run in 10+ handicap chases (but won no more than 2)
- 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)
- Made racecourse debut in a NH race
- Has run over the National fences (ideally in 2013 Becher or 2014 Grand National)
- Ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, Classic Chase, Troytown and/or Paddy Power Chase
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies.