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    Info JOHN DURKAN MEMORIAL CHASE TRENDS 2014

    The Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Steeplechase takes place on Sunday, 7th December. The best Irish staying chasers of recent times have won this, including Florida Pearl, Beef Or Salmon and Kicking King. This year’s renewal could see the return to the track for the 2014 Gold Cup winner, Lord Windermere.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 4-1-9
    7yo: 2-4-11
    8yo: 4-5-23
    9yo: 0-3-16
    10yo+: 0-0-7
    horses aged 6 to 8: 10-10-43
    horses aged 9+: 0-3-23
    The only winner aged older than 8 was Native Upmanship in 2002, who had finished 1st and 2nd previous 2 years.

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception unseated)
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ last time out (exception unseated)
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ on last 2 completed starts
    10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
    10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase
    5 of 10 winners had won a Grade 1 chase (5 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase)
    10 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 14 chases prior to this
    10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
    10 of 10 were officially rated 150+

    Other Races


    Powers Irish Whiskey Chase winner (Don Cossack): 131 (2-1-3)
    Previous season's Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): 41 (1-0-2)
    Star Chase winner (Don Cossack): 523 (0-2-3)
    Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Lord Windermere): 2 (0-1-1)
    Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 32F (0-1-3)
    Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Texas Jack): 44 (0-0-2)
    2 of 10 winners ran in Gowran Champion Chase, finishing 13 (would have been 11 but for a last fence fall)
    2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase last time, finishing 2U
    2 of 10 winners ran in Clonmel Oil Chase last time, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in Fortria Chase last time, finishing 31
    3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing B31
    3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 23P
    3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in the Powers Gold Cup, finishing 221
    3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Irish Arkle, finishing 11F
    2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Powers Irish Whiskey Chase last time, finishing 11
    2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Naas Directors Plate, finishing 11
    6 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (3 Arkle, 2 Ryanair & 1 Gold Cup)
    5 of 10 winners ran at the Punchestown Festival (3 Ryanair Novice, 1 Gold Cup & 1 Growise Novice Chase)

    Trainers


    Willie Mullins (1-1-11) trained Florida Pearl to win this in 2001 but had struggled in the race in the following 11 years before winning it with Arvika Ligeonniere last year (though it was only a 3-runner race, in which he saddled the first 2 in the betting).
    Robert Hennessy (1-0-3) saddled Ruby Light to win this in 2011.
    Mouse Morris (0-2-3) won this in 1993 with Cahervillahow and has seen 2 of his last 3 runners get placed.
    Noel Meade (0-0-5) has seen his 5 runners since 2004 all finish out of the places.

    Price


    10 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or below
    The last 10 winners all came from the first 4 in the betting.
    Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 2.20.



    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 to 8
    - Run once or twice this season
    - Has run since October
    - Finished in first 3 last time, posting RPR of 151+
    - Posted an RPR of 157+ in last 2 starts
    - Won over 2M 4F or further
    - Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)
    - Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
    - Previously run 5 to 14 times over fences
    - Second or third season chaser
    - Officially rated 150+
    - Finished in first 2 in Lexus and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
    - 2nd season chaser that finished in first 3 in Arkle, Powers Gold Cup, Irish Arkle and/or Ryanair Novice Chase
    - Last run in Powers Irish Whisky, Clonmel Oil, Fortria or JNWine Champion Chase
    - Priced 7/1 or below
    - Willie Mullins & Noel Meade do not have great recent records in this.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (3rd December 2014) 


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