PETERBOROUGH CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The grade 2 Betfred Peterborough Chase is run over 2M 4½F for 4yos and upwards, and will take place at Huntingdon on Sunday, 7th December. The race was abandoned in 2010 & 2012 due to frost and rescheduled for Newbury & Kempton respectively but for the trends we will look at last 10 runnings at Huntingdon.





Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings at Huntingdon (2002-2013):



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 3-2-9
7yo: 2-2-13
8yo: 1-4-21
9yo: 3-2-14
10yo: 1-2-8
11yo+: 0-1-3
Age of the winners has been fairly well spread out but 6yos do have the best record, gaining 3 wins and 4 seconds from just 9 runners.

Weight


horses carrying 11-10 to 11-11: 3-3-17
horses carrying 11-2 to 11-7: 5-7-27
horses carrying 11-0 or less: 2-3-25
horses carrying the maximum penalty have won 3 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 27.3% of the total runners.
Unpenalised runners (those carrying 11-0) have gained just 2 wins and 3 places from over a third of the total runners in the past 10 renewals.

Recent/Past Form


7 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
10 of 10 winners contested a grade 1 or 2 on last chase start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 155+ on last 2 completed chase starts
5 of 10 winners won on last completed start
3 of 10 winners had won at Huntingdon (6 others were having their first course start and other was 2nd on only run here)
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (1 exception was twice 2nd in grade 2 chases over 2M 4F & other exception was 2nd in a 2M 6F grade 1)
5 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase

Other Races


Highest placed finisher from Ascot Chase: 44113 (2-0-5)
Old Roan Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 217 (1-1-3)
Weatherbys Private Banking Graduation Chase winner (Fox Appeal): 2 (0-1-1)
Future Champion Novice Chase winner (Eduard): 2 (0-0-1)
Hallowe'en Trophy winner (Vukovar): 4 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the King George the previous year, finishing 2F36
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 422
3 of last 5 winners ran in Ryanair Chase, finishing 584
2 of 10 winners ran in the Old Roan Chase last time, finishing 17
2 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Gold Cup last time, finishing 46
7 of 10 winners had run in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival (3 exceptions all ran at Aintree Grand National meeting)

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (1-2-10) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 10 runners in the last 10 runnings at Huntingdon.
Nicky Richards (1-0-1) & Nicky Henderson (1-0-4) have both trained the winner since 2008.
Sue Smith (0-2-3) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-5) have both saddled a couple of placed finishers since 2002. Hobbs trained the winner of the rescheduled running at Kempton in 2012.

Price


9 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting


Deep Purple won the race at 12/1 in 2009 and has been the only winner to come from outside the first 3 in the betting in the past 20 years.
Favourites (5-3-11) have won 5 of last 10 runnings at Huntingdon & show a level stakes profit of 0.22.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 9 (particularly 6yos)
- Carrying 11-3+
- Course winner (or having first start here)
- Ran in past 50 days
- Had last chase start in a grade 1 or 2
- Posted an RPR of 155+ on 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts
- Won over 2M 4F+ (or 2nd in a graded chase over 2M 4F+)
- Won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Finished in first 5 in previous season’s King George, Ryanair and/or Ascot Chase
- Ran at 2014 Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals
- From the first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 5/1).