The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (formerly sponsored by Boylesports and several others) takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday, 13th December. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M 5F. Usually many horses that contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November run in this and 5 of the last 9 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on their previous start.
The race was not run in 2008. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2003 to 2013):
horses aged 4 to 7: 9-17-74
horses 8+: 1-10-76
6 & 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 43.3% of the total runners.
horses aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 2 places from 43 runners since 2003. You have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner aged older than 9.
French bred: 7-10-52
Irish bred: 3-15-64
British bred: 0-1-27
German bred: 0-0-3
American bred: 0-0-2
NZ bred: 0-0-2
French bred horses have won 7 of last 10 runnings and they have represented just 34.7% of total runners. All French bred winners were aged 7 or younger.
horses carrying 10-13 or more: 5-10-69
horses carrying 10-12 or lower: 5-16-81
No very strong trends on weight carried by the winners.
Record of top weight: P4P5PR9102P7 (1-1-12). Poquelin won the race in 2010 under top weight, though had a claimer taking 5lbs off.
4 of the 5 runners to carry a penalty since 2000 have been placed.
horses rated 145 or higher: 5-13-74
horses rated 144 or lower: 5-13-76
No huge bias on official ratings over the past 10 renewals, however if we focus on the past 7 renewals:
horses rated 145 or higher: 5-11-54
horses rated 144 or lower: 2-7-50
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times since 1st July
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 142+ last time out
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days
9 of 10 winners had previously contested 5 to 14 chases (exception had run in 3)
9 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 times over fences (exception had won just 1 chase)
9 of 10 winners had run in 4 or less handicap chases (exception was Poquelin winning it for a 2nd time in 2010)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
6 of 10 winners were 2nd season chasers (3 exceptions were 3rd season chasers & other was a first season chaser)
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded chase (2 exception were novices that had yet run in a class 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham
Share Centre Simply Easier Handicap Chase winner (Sound Investment): 13 (1-1-2)
John H Kenny Memorial Cup winner (Carrigmorna King): 1 (1-0-1)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Caid Du Berlais): P1505 (1-0-5)
horses that placed in Paddy Power Gold Cup: 021B0PP5616U1293 (3-3-16)
Bet365 Open Handicap Chase winner (No Buts): F2 (0-1-2)
Record of horses that won or placed in Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase: 3184U1 (2-2-6)
Record of highest placed finisher from Arkle Novice Chase: B2194628 (1-3-8)
Record of highest placed finisher from Ryanair Chase: F919 (1-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 31252
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 37
2 of 10 winners ran in Rewards4Racing Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 42
7 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (1 Arkle, 1 Grand Annual, 1 RSA, 1 Coral Cup, 1 Martin Pipe, 1 Ryanair & 2 Rewards4Racing Nov H'cap Chase)
4 of 10 winners contested a chase at that year's Aintree Festival
Paul Nicholls (3-6-20) saddled Poquelin to win the race in 2009 & 2010 and Unioniste in 2012. He has had a winner or placed finisher in 8 of the last 10 runnings.
Nicky Henderson (2-0-12) has also trained 3 of the last 11 winners of this.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-3-14) has saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers from 14 runners since 2003.
Philip Hobbs (1-2-6) & David Pipe (1-2-15) have both saddled a winner and 2 placed finisher in past 10 runnings.
Irish trained horses (1-1-15) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 20 runners since 2000. Both winners were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival.
7 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1, however the other 3 winners were sent off 16/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-4-10) don’t have a great record in this race. In 2009 Poquelin became the first winning favourite since 1996.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 6 or 7
- Officially rated 145+
- Run 1 to 3 times this season
- Finished in the first 3 last time & posted an RPR of 142+
- Ran in the last 30 days
- Run in 5 to 14 chases (winning 2 to 4)
- Run in 4 or less handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
- 2nd or 3rd season chaser
- Previously won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham
- Won or placed in a graded chase
- Finished in first 5 in Paddy Power Gold Cup
- Ran in 2014 Arkle or Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls.