The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (formerly sponsored by Boylesports and several others) takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday, 13th December. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M 5F. Usually many horses that contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November run in this and 5 of the last 9 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on their previous start.





The race was not run in 2008. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2003 to 2013):



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-0-1
5yo: 0-3-8
6yo: 3-7-28
7yo: 5-7-37
8yo: 1-7-33
9yo: 0-2-25
10yo+: 0-0-18
horses aged 4 to 7: 9-17-74
horses 8+: 1-10-76
6 & 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 43.3% of the total runners.
horses aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 2 places from 43 runners since 2003. You have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner aged older than 9.

Breeding


French bred: 7-10-52
Irish bred: 3-15-64
British bred: 0-1-27
German bred: 0-0-3
American bred: 0-0-2
NZ bred: 0-0-2


French bred horses have won 7 of last 10 runnings and they have represented just 34.7% of total runners. All French bred winners were aged 7 or younger.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-13 or more: 5-10-69
horses carrying 10-12 or lower: 5-16-81
No very strong trends on weight carried by the winners.
Record of top weight: P4P5PR9102P7 (1-1-12). Poquelin won the race in 2010 under top weight, though had a claimer taking 5lbs off.
4 of the 5 runners to carry a penalty since 2000 have been placed.

Official Ratings
horses rated 145 or higher: 5-13-74
horses rated 144 or lower: 5-13-76
No huge bias on official ratings over the past 10 renewals, however if we focus on the past 7 renewals:
horses rated 145 or higher: 5-11-54
horses rated 144 or lower: 2-7-50

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times since 1st July
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 142+ last time out


8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out


9 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days
9 of 10 winners had previously contested 5 to 14 chases (exception had run in 3)
9 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 times over fences (exception had won just 1 chase)
9 of 10 winners had run in 4 or less handicap chases (exception was Poquelin winning it for a 2nd time in 2010)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
6 of 10 winners were 2nd season chasers (3 exceptions were 3rd season chasers & other was a first season chaser)
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded chase (2 exception were novices that had yet run in a class 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham

Other Races


Share Centre Simply Easier Handicap Chase winner (Sound Investment): 13 (1-1-2)
John H Kenny Memorial Cup winner (Carrigmorna King): 1 (1-0-1)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Caid Du Berlais): P1505 (1-0-5)
horses that placed in Paddy Power Gold Cup: 021B0PP5616U1293 (3-3-16)
Bet365 Open Handicap Chase winner (No Buts): F2 (0-1-2)
Record of horses that won or placed in Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase: 3184U1 (2-2-6)
Record of highest placed finisher from Arkle Novice Chase: B2194628 (1-3-8)
Record of highest placed finisher from Ryanair Chase: F919 (1-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 31252
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 37
2 of 10 winners ran in Rewards4Racing Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 42
7 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (1 Arkle, 1 Grand Annual, 1 RSA, 1 Coral Cup, 1 Martin Pipe, 1 Ryanair & 2 Rewards4Racing Nov H'cap Chase)
4 of 10 winners contested a chase at that year's Aintree Festival

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (3-6-20) saddled Poquelin to win the race in 2009 & 2010 and Unioniste in 2012. He has had a winner or placed finisher in 8 of the last 10 runnings.
Nicky Henderson (2-0-12) has also trained 3 of the last 11 winners of this.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-3-14) has saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers from 14 runners since 2003.
Philip Hobbs (1-2-6) & David Pipe (1-2-15) have both saddled a winner and 2 placed finisher in past 10 runnings.
Irish trained horses (1-1-15) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 20 runners since 2000. Both winners were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival.

Price


7 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1, however the other 3 winners were sent off 16/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-4-10) don’t have a great record in this race. In 2009 Poquelin became the first winning favourite since 1996.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 6 or 7
- Officially rated 145+
- Run 1 to 3 times this season
- Finished in the first 3 last time & posted an RPR of 142+
- Ran in the last 30 days
- Run in 5 to 14 chases (winning 2 to 4)
- Run in 4 or less handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
- 2nd or 3rd season chaser
- Previously won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham
- Won or placed in a graded chase
- Finished in first 5 in Paddy Power Gold Cup
- Ran in 2014 Arkle or Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls.