Boxing Day or St Stephens Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in history and the last 10 renewals of the race have been shared between 4 horses, Kicking King, Kauto Star, Long Run & Silviniaco Conti (who will look to win back to back runnings this year).
Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:
Age (for age purposes we will assume the race run in 2010-11 season was run in 2010)
horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 7-11-39
Compare that to horses aged 8 or older of 3-7-56.
Kauto Star has accounted for all 3 wins for horses aged 8+.
French bred: 8-10-42
Irish bred: 2-6-35
GB bred: 0-2-16
German bred: 0-0-2
French-bred horses have won last 8 and have accounted for 18 of 28 places in last 10 runnings from approximately 44.2% of total runners.
6 of 10 winners won on their last completed start (4 exceptions placed)
9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 170+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+)
9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (9 of 10 won 2+ grade 1 chases)
8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (2 others having first course start)
Previous year's winner (Silviniaco Conti): 0111132U (4-2-8)
Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 1311121P1U (6-1-10)
Betfair Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): P117112 (4-1-7)
Old Roan Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 31 (1-1-2)
Ascot Chase winner (Captain Chris): 162 (1-1-3)
Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Road To Riches): P13P (1-1-4)
John Durkan Chase winner (Don Cossack): 51 (1-0-2)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 15 (1-0-2)
Feltham Novice Chase winner (Annacotty): 615 (1-0-3)
Amlin1965 Chase winner (Al Ferof): 6P23 (0-2-4)
Peterborough Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking: 4334P (0-2-5)
Aintree Bowl winner (Silviniaco Conti): 43P3P25 (0-2-7)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Menorah): 6P4 (0-0-3)
Melling Chase winner (Boston Bob): 3PP (0-1-3)
Ryanair Chase winner (Dynaste): PP5P62 (0-1-6)
6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 111132
8 of 10 winners (8 of last 9) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U1123
3 of 10 winners ran in Denman Chase, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Bowl, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 1P
7 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 112133F
2 of 2 second season chasers to win this had placed in Arkle or RSA
10 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at previous season's Cheltenham Festival
Paul Nicholls (6-3-15) has won 6 of the last 8 renewals (5 with Kauto Star).
Nicky Henderson (2-3-11) saddled Long Run to finish 1st-2nd-1st in last 3 runnings.
David Pipe (0-3-11) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-6) have both saddled multiple placed finishers in past 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (2-0-5) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, both Kicking King. Willie Mullins hasn’t had a runner in this in past 10 years but he did saddle Florida Pearl to finish 2nd & 1st in the first 2 runnings of the race this century.
The last 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting.
All 10 winners since 2004 were sent off 9/2 or shorter.
7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 6.06.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- French bred
- Has run 1 to 3 times this season
- Won or placed last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+)
- Won over 3M+
- Won 2+ Grade 1 chases
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD
- Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup or
- Second season chaser that placed in 2014 Arkle or RSA Chase
- Finished in first 3 in the Betfair Chase last time
- Finished in first 3 in Denman Chase, Aintree Bowl or JNWine Champion Chase
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
- From first 3 in the betting (priced no bigger than 9/2).