FELTHAM NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The Kauto Star Feltham Novice Chase takes the place at Kempton on Boxing Day on the supporting card to the King George VI Chase. The race is seen as one of the best guides to the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. The race was abandoned in 2010 so we will focus on last 10 runnings from 2003 to 2013.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-0-2
5yo: 1-3-13
6yo: 6-3-25
7yo: 1-3-12
8yo: 1-2-7
9yo+: 0-0-3
No strong trends on ages, 6yos have won 6 of last 10 from 40% of total runners.

Breeding


Irish bred: 4-9-40
French bred: 4-1-11
GB bred: 2-0-8
NZ bred: 0-1-2
German bred: 0-0-1
French bred have won 4 of last 10 (won last 3 in which they’ve been represented) from less than 18% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners won last time out (1 exception was 2nd in Hennessy Gold Cup & other 2nd in a Chepstow handicap chase)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 140+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases
9 of 10 winners had won over 50% of their chase starts
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 14 hurdles races
5 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle
7 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (1 exception finished 2nd in Hennessy)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 6F+
5 of 10 winners had won a chase at Newbury
The 10 winners had run in a combined 36 chases the season they won it, finishing in first 2 in 31 of those 36 runs (2 exceptions were a fall and a 4th in Paddy Power Gold Cup & other 3 unplaced runs accounted by Annacotty)

Other Races


Worcester Novices' Chase winner (Carraig Mor): 212114 (3-2-6)
Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Coneygree): 431 (1-0-3)
Betfair Home of Price Rush Novices' Chase winner (Virak): 55 (0-0-2)
Harry Dutfield Memorial Novice Chase winner (Saphir Du Rheu): F (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in Worcester Novice Chase, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Ryman Stationery Novice Chase last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Rising Star Novice Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 12
6 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at that year's Cheltenham Festival (2 World Hurdle, 2 Neptune Investments, 2 Coral Cup)

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (2-1-9) has gained 2 wins & 1 second from 9 runners in last 10 runnings.
Martin Keighley (1-0-1) trained Annacotty to win this last year.
Philip Hobbs (0-3-4) has seen 3 of his 4 runners get placed since 2003.



Price


8 of 10 winners were priced 5/2 or shorter
Favourite (7-0-11) have won 7 of last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 5.68.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Won last time out, posting an RPR of 146+
- Ran in past 50 days
- Won at least twice over fences
- Won over 50% of chase starts
- Won a class 1 chase or hurdle
- Won over 2M 6F or further
- Run in no more than 14 hurdles races
- Won the Worcester, Ryman Stationery and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase
- Finished in first 2 in Rising Star Novice Chase, Hennessy Gold Cup and/or 2014 Cleeve Hurdle
- Ran in a hurdle over 2M 4F+ at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Martin Keighley
- Priced 5/2 or shorter (favourite does well).