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    Info PADDY POWER CHASE TRENDS 2014

    The valuable Grade B Paddy Power Handicap Chase is the highlight of a top class card on day 2 of Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival. Run over 3 miles for 5 year olds and upwards, it is always a wide open contest that really tests a horse’s stamina, unexposed types generally do best as no winner of this since 2004 had run in more than 7 handicap chases.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 1-2-5
    6yo: 1-3-28
    7yo: 2-13-87
    8yo: 4-4-84
    9yo: 2-7-51
    10yo: 0-1-17
    11yo+: 0-0-7
    No strong trend on age of the winners.
    horses aged 10 or older have struggled, gaining just 1 place from 24 runners.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 10-9 or more: 3-13-132
    horses carrying 10-8 or less: 7-17-147
    horses carrying 10-11 or less have won 8 of last 10, both exceptions were top weights.
    Top weight: P0010FU18F65 (2-0-13)
    horses carrying a penalty: F00F2F0F004F (0-2-12)

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 130 or higher: 4-10-111
    horses rated 129 or lower: 6-20-168
    The shape of the race has changed quite drastically in past few years as between 2001 & 2005 all 5 winners were rated 100 to 118 however these days very few horses rated 118 or lower make it in to the race.
    Looking at past 6 years:
    horses rated 134 or higher: 1-4-51
    horses rated 124 to 133: 5-12-80
    horses rated 123 or lower: 0-2-35
    horses rated 124 to 133 have filled 11 of the 12 places in past 3 runnings.

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
    8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 127+ on last chase start
    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since 1st October


    10 of 10 winners had run in the past 60 days
    7 of 10 winners gained their first chase win over 2M 4F+
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F to 3M
    8 of 10 winners had previously run in 3 to 9 chases
    10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 15 chases
    10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 7 handicap chases
    10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase
    8 of 10 winners had won or placed at track before (1 exception fell in this race when in contention on only previous course run & other was having first run here)
    8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions were novices)
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won or placed in a Grade A-C or Listed Chase (both exception had yet to run in a graded or listed chase)

    Other Races


    Highest placed finisher from Troytown Handicap Chase: 4P10803381 (2-3-10)
    Record of first 4 from Troytown: F742P8410082063U831841 (3-7-22)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (My Murphy): P10 (1-0-3)
    Weatherbys Ireland GSB Handicap Chase winner (Grand Jesture): 4 (0-1-1)
    Leinster National winner (Galant Oscar): P (0-0-1)
    Porterstown Handicap Chase winner (Embracing Change): F5F0 (0-0-4)
    Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 0FFP (0-0-4)
    Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Folsom Blue): 0B0FU (0-0-5)
    Cork Grand National winner (Vics Canvas): 088P0 (0-0-5)
    3 of 10 winners finished placed in Pertemps Final handicap hurdle here in December, finishing 334
    3 of 10 winners ran in Troytown Handicap Chase last time, finishing 134
    2 of 10 winners ran in Cork National, finishing 34
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 6F
    2 of 10 winners ran in 3M Navan EBF Novice H'cap Chase Final, finishing 14

    Trainers


    Tony Martin (1-3-10) has saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers since 2004.
    Ted Walsh (1-1-4) & Tom Taaffe (1-1-9) have both saddled a winner & a place in past 10 runnings.
    Willie Mullins (1-1-17) trained the winner last year.
    Noel Meade (1-1-22) has trained the winner in 2002 & 2011, while Mouse Morris (1-0-7) trained the winner in 2004.
    Gordon Elliot (0-3-8) has saddled the runner-up in past 2 years. Arthur Moore (0-3-9), Christy Roche (0-2-7) & Robert Tyner (0-2-9) have each trained multiple placed runners in the past 10 years. Robert Tyner also trained the winner in 2000 & 2001.

    Racing Tactics


    6 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or rear
    4 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)

    Price
    No very strong trend on the prices. Three winners in the last 10 years have been sent off 25/1 or bigger while there have four single-figure priced winners.
    Favourites (2-1-10) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 0.50.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 5 to 9
    - Carrying 10-11 or less or allotted top weight
    - Officially rated 124 to 133
    - Finished in the first 5 last time out in past 60 days (posting RPR of 127+)
    - Run 2 to 4 times this season
    - Won or placed at Leopardstown (or first course start)
    - Second or third season chaser
    - Won a chase over 2M 4F to 3M
    - Previously run 3 to 9 times over fences
    - Run in 1 to 7 handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
    - Finished in first 4 in Troytown, Cork Grand National and/or 3M Navan EBF Novice H'cap Chase Final
    - Placed in Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle at 2013 Leopardstown Christmas Festival


    - Won or placed in a Grade (A,B,C) or listed chase
    - Trained by Tony Martin, Ted Walsh, Tom Taaffe, Gordon Elliot, Arthur Moore or Robert Tyner.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd December 2014) 


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