PADDY POWER CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The valuable Grade B Paddy Power Handicap Chase is the highlight of a top class card on day 2 of Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival. Run over 3 miles for 5 year olds and upwards, it is always a wide open contest that really tests a horse’s stamina, unexposed types generally do best as no winner of this since 2004 had run in more than 7 handicap chases.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-2-5
6yo: 1-3-28
7yo: 2-13-87
8yo: 4-4-84
9yo: 2-7-51
10yo: 0-1-17
11yo+: 0-0-7
No strong trend on age of the winners.
horses aged 10 or older have struggled, gaining just 1 place from 24 runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-9 or more: 3-13-132
horses carrying 10-8 or less: 7-17-147
horses carrying 10-11 or less have won 8 of last 10, both exceptions were top weights.
Top weight: P0010FU18F65 (2-0-13)
horses carrying a penalty: F00F2F0F004F (0-2-12)

Official Ratings


horses rated 130 or higher: 4-10-111
horses rated 129 or lower: 6-20-168
The shape of the race has changed quite drastically in past few years as between 2001 & 2005 all 5 winners were rated 100 to 118 however these days very few horses rated 118 or lower make it in to the race.
Looking at past 6 years:
horses rated 134 or higher: 1-4-51
horses rated 124 to 133: 5-12-80
horses rated 123 or lower: 0-2-35
horses rated 124 to 133 have filled 11 of the 12 places in past 3 runnings.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 127+ on last chase start
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since 1st October


10 of 10 winners had run in the past 60 days
7 of 10 winners gained their first chase win over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F to 3M
8 of 10 winners had previously run in 3 to 9 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 15 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 7 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase
8 of 10 winners had won or placed at track before (1 exception fell in this race when in contention on only previous course run & other was having first run here)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions were novices)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won or placed in a Grade A-C or Listed Chase (both exception had yet to run in a graded or listed chase)

Other Races


Highest placed finisher from Troytown Handicap Chase: 4P10803381 (2-3-10)
Record of first 4 from Troytown: F742P8410082063U831841 (3-7-22)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (My Murphy): P10 (1-0-3)
Weatherbys Ireland GSB Handicap Chase winner (Grand Jesture): 4 (0-1-1)
Leinster National winner (Galant Oscar): P (0-0-1)
Porterstown Handicap Chase winner (Embracing Change): F5F0 (0-0-4)
Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 0FFP (0-0-4)
Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Folsom Blue): 0B0FU (0-0-5)
Cork Grand National winner (Vics Canvas): 088P0 (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners finished placed in Pertemps Final handicap hurdle here in December, finishing 334
3 of 10 winners ran in Troytown Handicap Chase last time, finishing 134
2 of 10 winners ran in Cork National, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 6F
2 of 10 winners ran in 3M Navan EBF Novice H'cap Chase Final, finishing 14

Trainers


Tony Martin (1-3-10) has saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers since 2004.
Ted Walsh (1-1-4) & Tom Taaffe (1-1-9) have both saddled a winner & a place in past 10 runnings.
Willie Mullins (1-1-17) trained the winner last year.
Noel Meade (1-1-22) has trained the winner in 2002 & 2011, while Mouse Morris (1-0-7) trained the winner in 2004.
Gordon Elliot (0-3-8) has saddled the runner-up in past 2 years. Arthur Moore (0-3-9), Christy Roche (0-2-7) & Robert Tyner (0-2-9) have each trained multiple placed runners in the past 10 years. Robert Tyner also trained the winner in 2000 & 2001.

Racing Tactics


6 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or rear
4 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)

Price
No very strong trend on the prices. Three winners in the last 10 years have been sent off 25/1 or bigger while there have four single-figure priced winners.
Favourites (2-1-10) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 0.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 to 9
- Carrying 10-11 or less or allotted top weight
- Officially rated 124 to 133
- Finished in the first 5 last time out in past 60 days (posting RPR of 127+)
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- Won or placed at Leopardstown (or first course start)
- Second or third season chaser
- Won a chase over 2M 4F to 3M
- Previously run 3 to 9 times over fences
- Run in 1 to 7 handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
- Finished in first 4 in Troytown, Cork Grand National and/or 3M Navan EBF Novice H'cap Chase Final
- Placed in Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle at 2013 Leopardstown Christmas Festival


- Won or placed in a Grade (A,B,C) or listed chase
- Trained by Tony Martin, Ted Walsh, Tom Taaffe, Gordon Elliot, Arthur Moore or Robert Tyner.