PADDY POWER DIAL-A-BET CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, which takes place at Leopardstown on the 27th December, became a grade 1 event in 2007 and run over 2M 1F it will attract some of the main Irish hopefuls for the 2015 Queen Mother Champion Chase.





Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
7yo: 5-3-16
8yo: 2-4-14
9yo: 1-2-12
10yo: 2-1-8
11yo+: 0-0-5
5 of 10 winners aged 7 from approximately 28.6% of total runners.
All 3 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred horses that had previously won the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time out (6 won)
9 of 10 winners posted RPR of 147+ last time
9 of 10 winners were course winners (exception Big Zeb had finished 2nd in a grade 1 chase here in only previous completed start)
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
10 of 10 winners had previously run in 6 to 20 chases
7 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (3 exceptions had won this race previously)
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (exception had won two grade 2 chases & a grade 1 hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had won a chase at a previous Leopardstown Christmas Festival

Other Races


Fortria Chase winner (Twinlight): 31211 (3-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Champion Chase: 42531114 (3-1-8)
Punchestown Champion Chase (Sizing Europe) 1211 (3-0-4)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 14 (1-0-2)
Hilly Way Chase winner (Felix Younger): 4312F (1-0-5)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Moscow Mannon): 3242 (0-2-4)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Savello): 2 (0-1-1)
Paddy Power Your Local Bookmaker Chase winner (Days Hotel): 325F (0-1-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Fortria, finishing 3111
4 of 10 winners ran in Tied Cottage Chase, finishing 3121
4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Arkle, finishing 2P11
3 of 10 winners ran in Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing 122
3 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Powers Gold Cup, finishing 427
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial last time out, finishing 142
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Arkle, finishing U0
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase last time out, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 14

Trainers


Tony Martin (1-0-1) & Henry De Bromhead (1-0-2) have trained the past 2 winners.
Willie Mullins (1-0-7) has won this once in last 10 years from 7 runners, in 2009 with Golden Silver.
Shark Hanlon (0-1-1) & Mouse Morris (0-1-1) have each saddled the runner-up once since 2004.

Price


10 of 10 winners went off at 9/1 or shorter
Not a race to be looking for an outsider with 9 of 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of the last 10 runnings but show a level stakes loss of 3.44.




Conclusion:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 8 (or previous winner)
- Finished in first 2 last time (posting RPR of 160+)
- Had run no more than 3 times this season
- Previously run in 6 to 20 chases
- Course winner
- Won a Grade 1 chase
- Won a chase at a previous Leopardstown Christmas Festival
- Ran in the John Durkan, Fortria or Hilly Way Chase last time
- Finished in first 3 in Irish Arkle, Tied Cottage, Fortria and/or Punchestown Champion Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Queen Mother or Arkle at 2014 Cheltenham Festival
- Priced 9/1 or shorter.