The Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle is one of two grade 1 races that takes place at Leopardstown on the second day of the Christmas Festival (December 27th). It has been won by some top class hurdlers since 2000, including Solerina, Hurricane Fly and last year, Jezki. Whatever wins this year’s renewal will likely take up a prominent place in both the Supreme Novices’ and Neptune at Cheltenham.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
All 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 but 4yos (who receive a 3lb allowance) hold a slight edge, having won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 47% of total runners.
2 of last 5 winners aged 5 were mares, who also receive a weight allowance.
Mares (0-0-3) have won this race twice since 2000 from just 6 runners (but all 3 have been unplaced in last 10 years). Both winning mares since 2000 were aged 5 and had previously won a listed or graded hurdle.
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 others finished 3rd in Royal Bond)
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had won over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles (other 2 were unbeaten in 1 run over hurdles)
6 of 10 winners had won over 2M 2F or further
8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other two had run in listed/group company on the flat)
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 12311 (3-1-5)
Record of horses who finished in the first 3 in the Royal Bond: 51531716423141 (5-2-14)
Follow Us On Facebook Maiden Hurdle winner (Sizing John): 32671 (1-1-5)
Santa Train At Gowran Park 4yo Novice Hurdle winner (Douvan): 841 (1-0-3)
Happy 80th Birthday Peter Donnelly Maiden Hurdle winner (Sub Lieutenant): 3 (0-1-1)
Visit [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] For All Offers Maiden Hurdle winner (Alpha Des Obeaux): 42 (0-1-2)
Cahir Maiden Hurdle winner (Max Dynamite): 5 (0-0-1) Thur 30 Nov
Paddy Power Betting Shops Maiden Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 6 (0-0-1)
For Auction Novice Hurdle winner (McKinley): F36 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Bond, finishing 33111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 408
Willie Mullins (1-2-6) has gained 1 winner (2008), 1 second & 3 thirds from 6 runners, however in past 3 years he’s had a runner, he’s saddled a beaten favourite (2 of which were odds-on).
Mouse Morris (1-0-2) won the race with First Lieutenant in 2010.
Henry De Bromhead (0-1-2) trained Sizing Europe to finish 3rd in in this in 2006.
7 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting however 3 of the last 7 winners have been priced between 16/1 and 25/1.
The favourite (2-4-11) has a poor record in this, having won just 2 of the last 10 renewals and show a level stakes loss of 5.62. Willie Mullins saddled the favourite in 2010, 2011 & 2013, at 1/4, 4/9 & 6/5, and all 3 were beaten.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Gelding aged 4 or mare aged 5
- Won last time out or finished in the first 3 in Royal Bond
- Had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles (or won on only hurdles start)
- Finished in first 3 in all hurdles starts this season
- Won over 2M 2F+
- Won a bumper or ran in group/listed race on flat
- Finished in first 3 in Royal Bond and/or ran in 2014 Cheltenham Champion Bumper.