LEOPARDSTOWN CHRISTMAS HURDLE TRENDS 2014

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The Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 28th December as part of the supporting card to the Lexus Chase. It was upgraded from grade 2 to grade 1 status last year. The Lismullen & Hatton’s Grace Hurdles have proven the key races in finding the winner of this in recent years.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-3
5yo: 2-3-15
6yo: 2-4-11
7yo: 3-2-13
8yo: 2-2-13
9yo: 1-1-8
10yo: 0-1-7
11yo+: 0-1-3
No very strong trends on the ages of the winners, though horses aged 5 to 7 have held a slight advantage, having won the last 4.
horses aged 5 to 7: 7-9-39
All other ages: 3-5-34

Gender


Mares (3-1-10) do well in this, gaining 3 wins & 1 place from 10 runners, 13.7% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (exception finished 4th in Hatton's Grace last time)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 148+ in last 2 runs (last 4 winners posted RPR of 156+ last time)
8 of 10 winners had run in at least 12 hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F to 3M
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 (exception had won a grade 3 & was 3rd in grade 1)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) were officially rated 145+
3 of 10 winners had previously won here (4 exceptions were placed in a graded hurdle here & 2 others were having first course start)


Other Races


Lismullen Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 4411414 (3-0-7)
Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 41212 (2-2-5)
Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Briar Hill): 12 (1-0-2)
Coolmore N.H. Sires Fame And Glory & Sans Frontieres Novice Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 23 (0-1-2)
Previous year's Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Briar Hill): 5 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in the Hatton’s Grace, finishing 214122
5 of 10 winners ran in the World Series Hurdle, finishing 5634P
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 7) ran in Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle, finishing 23112
4 of 10 winners ran in the Lismullen Hurdle, finishing 4111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Boyne Hurdle, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle, finishing 512
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing P22
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tara Hurdle last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Galmoy Hurdle, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in World Hurdle, finishing 3P

Trainers


Willie Mullins (2-4-11) won this in 2010 & 2013 and also saddled the 2nd in 2011 and 2nd & 3rd in 2012.
Noel Meade (2-0-7) trained the winner in in 2005 & 2012.

Price


10 of 10 winners were sent off at less than 10/1
8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting.
The favourite (4-2-10) has won 4 of last 10 renewals but shows a level stakes loss of 1.23.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 to 8
- Mares do well
- Finished in first 3 last time in past 40 days
- Posted an RPR of 148+ in 1 or both of last 2 runs (ideally posted RPR of 156+ last time)
- Won over 2M 4F to 3M
- Run at least 12 times over hurdles
- Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Officially rated 145+
- Previously won at Leopardstown (or placed in a graded hurdle here)
- Finished in first 2 in Hatton’s Grace or Tara Hurdle last time
- Finished in first 4 in the Lismullen and/or Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Boyne, Red Mills Trial Hurdle and/or 2013 Christmas Hurdle
- Finished in first 6 in World Series Hurdle at Punchestown Festival 2014
- From the first 3 in the betting.