CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2015

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The Betfred Classic Chase, which takes place at Warwick on Saturday 10th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horse’s Grand National credentials.





Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2002:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 2-6-16
8yo: 2-8-26
9yo: 3-3-36
10yo: 1-1-23
11yo: 1-2-18
12yo+: 1-1-14
No strong trend on ages, though all 6 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred, 2 of 4 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred.

Breeding


Irish bred: 7-11-81
French bred: 2-5-27
GB bred: 1-5-25
Other: 0-0-2
Irish bred runners have won 7 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented around 60% of the total runners.
French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 2-5-16 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-11.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-9 or more: 6-9-66
horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-12-69
In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with 6 of last 7 winners and 12 of the 21 placed finishers in past 7 renewals carrying 10-9 or more.
Top weight: 4FPB0P36152 (1-2-11)

Official Ratings


horses rated 141 or higher: 2-4-28
horses rated 129 to 140: 7-11-68
horses rated 128 or lower: 1-6-39
In past 7 runnings, the trend has been towards higher rated runners:
horses rated 133 or higher: 6-8-47
horses rated 132 or lower: 1-6-48

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy)
10 of 10 winners has posted an RPR of 136+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts


10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track


8 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases


8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase
7 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and other was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)

Other Races


Previous year's winner (Shotgun Paddy): 0 (0-0-1)
Cumberland Handicap Chase winner (Ballyoliver): P3 (0-1-2)
Totesport Supporting Welsh Racing Handicap Chase winner (Cadeau George): P (0-0-1)
Jockey Club Catering Festive Christmas Handicap Chase winner (Incentivise): 0F (0-0-2)
London National winner (Tales Of Milan): PPP (0-0-3)
Devon Marathon Handicap Chase winner (Adrenalin Flight): FPP (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase, finishing 4P4
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing U0
2 of 10 winners ran in JLT Specialty H'cap Chase at Cheltenham, finishing 8P
2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 00

Trainers


Alan King (2-2-7) has a fine record, having won 2 of last 5 and saddled runner-up in 2013.
Paul Nicholls (2-1-9) won back to back runnings in 2006 & 2007.
Venetia Williams (1-2-8) has gained 1 win & 3 places from her last 9 runners.
Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) trained Hey Big Spender to win this in 2012 & Emma Lavelle (1-0-2) won it last year with Shotgun Paddy.
Mark Bradstock (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up last year.

Price


No very strong trend on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners priced between 9/2 & 11/1 and the other 3 going off at 14/1, 18/1 & 25/1.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won just one running since 2002, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:


- Irish bred or French bred aged 8 or younger
- Carrying 10-9 or more
- Officially rated 133 or higher
- Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days
- Posted an RPR of 136+ in one or both of last 2 starts
- Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track
- Previously won at least twice over fences
- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
- Previously contested a graded chase (or rated lower than 130)
- Previously run in the Aintree or Scottish Grand National
- Finished in first 4 in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase
- Trained by Alan King, Paul Nicholls, C Tizzard or Ian Williams.