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    Info CLARENCE HOUSE CHASE TRENDS 2015

    The Sodexo Clarence House Chase takes place at Ascot on Saturday 17th January. The race is run over 2M 1F and was formerly as a handicap chase prior to 2008, when the race upgraded to grade 1 status and ceased to be run as handicap. The 2013 renewal took place at Cheltenham.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 7 runnings of this as a non-handicap:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-2-4
    7yo: 1-3-11
    8yo: 5-0-10
    9yo: 0-4-11
    10yo+: 0-0-12
    horses aged 6 to 8: 7-5-25
    horses aged 9+: 0-4-23
    1 of 2 winners aged 10+ was a previous winner & 2 of 3 placed finishers aged 10+ were placed in race before.

    Breeding


    French bred: 6-4-25
    Irish bred: 1-5-15
    GB bred: 0-0-5
    Other: 0-0-4
    French bred runners have won 6 of 7 runnings of this as a grade 1. Since 2002 9 of 11 winners were French bred, 1 was German bred and the other Irish bred.

    Recent/Past Form


    7 of 7 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August
    7 of 7 winners had posted an RPR of 160+ last time (4 of 7 posted RPR of 173+)
    6 of 7 winners won last time out (exception was 4th in the King George)
    7 of 7 winners had run in past 50 days
    6 of 7 winners had previously run in 10 to 19 chases (exception was Sprinter Sacre who won this on 7th chase start, after winning first 6)
    5 of 7 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exception had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal)
    5 of 7 winners had won a grade 1 chase
    7 of 7 winners had won a graded chase (6 of 7 had won a graded chase that season)
    6 of 7 winners had won a chase worth over £70K (exception twice placed in chases worth £70K+)
    6 of 7 winners (last 6) were officially rated 166+

    Other Races


    Tingle Creek winner (Dodging Bullets): 11111 (5-0-5)
    Previous season's Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 31 (1-0-2)
    Punchestown Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 3 (0-0-1)
    Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase winner (Twinlight): 3 (0-0-1)
    5 of 7 winners ran in Tingle Creek, finishing 11111
    4 of 7 winners ran in previous season's Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing 1F45
    3 of 7 winners ran in Game Spirit Chase, finishing 111
    2 of 2 second season chaser winners ran in Maghull Novices' Chase, finishing 14
    2 of 7 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11
    2 of 7 winners ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 12
    2 of 7 winners ran in Melling Chase, finishing 23

    Trainers


    Paul Nicholls (3-2-10) has won 3 of the 7 runnings of this race as a grade 1.
    Nicky Henderson (1-4-6) has saddled 1 winner and 4 places from 6 runners since 2008, he also saddle the winner of this in 2004 & 2006, when race was run as a handicap.

    Price


    6 of 7 winners were priced under 5/1
    5 of 7 favourites have won this since the race was upgraded to grade 1.
    Favourites (5-3-8) have gained 5 wins in past 7 years, giving a level stakes profit of 1.65.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 to 8
    - French bred
    - Run 1 to 4 times this season
    - Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
    - Won last start
    - Previously run in 10 to 19 chases (or unbeaten over fences)
    - Has previously won a grade 1
    - Won a chase worth over £70K
    - Officially rated 166+
    - Won Tingle Creek, Celebration and/or Game Spirit Chase in 2014
    - Finished in first 3 in Maghull Novices’, Melling or Amlin Chase
    - Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
    - Priced shorter than 5/1 (favourite especially).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (8th January 2015) 


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