CLARENCE HOUSE CHASE TRENDS 2015

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The Sodexo Clarence House Chase takes place at Ascot on Saturday 17th January. The race is run over 2M 1F and was formerly as a handicap chase prior to 2008, when the race upgraded to grade 1 status and ceased to be run as handicap. The 2013 renewal took place at Cheltenham.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 7 runnings of this as a non-handicap:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-4
7yo: 1-3-11
8yo: 5-0-10
9yo: 0-4-11
10yo+: 0-0-12
horses aged 6 to 8: 7-5-25
horses aged 9+: 0-4-23
1 of 2 winners aged 10+ was a previous winner & 2 of 3 placed finishers aged 10+ were placed in race before.

Breeding


French bred: 6-4-25
Irish bred: 1-5-15
GB bred: 0-0-5
Other: 0-0-4
French bred runners have won 6 of 7 runnings of this as a grade 1. Since 2002 9 of 11 winners were French bred, 1 was German bred and the other Irish bred.

Recent/Past Form


7 of 7 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August
7 of 7 winners had posted an RPR of 160+ last time (4 of 7 posted RPR of 173+)
6 of 7 winners won last time out (exception was 4th in the King George)
7 of 7 winners had run in past 50 days
6 of 7 winners had previously run in 10 to 19 chases (exception was Sprinter Sacre who won this on 7th chase start, after winning first 6)
5 of 7 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exception had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal)
5 of 7 winners had won a grade 1 chase
7 of 7 winners had won a graded chase (6 of 7 had won a graded chase that season)
6 of 7 winners had won a chase worth over £70K (exception twice placed in chases worth £70K+)
6 of 7 winners (last 6) were officially rated 166+

Other Races


Tingle Creek winner (Dodging Bullets): 11111 (5-0-5)
Previous season's Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 31 (1-0-2)
Punchestown Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 3 (0-0-1)
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase winner (Twinlight): 3 (0-0-1)
5 of 7 winners ran in Tingle Creek, finishing 11111
4 of 7 winners ran in previous season's Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing 1F45
3 of 7 winners ran in Game Spirit Chase, finishing 111
2 of 2 second season chaser winners ran in Maghull Novices' Chase, finishing 14
2 of 7 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11
2 of 7 winners ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 12
2 of 7 winners ran in Melling Chase, finishing 23

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (3-2-10) has won 3 of the 7 runnings of this race as a grade 1.
Nicky Henderson (1-4-6) has saddled 1 winner and 4 places from 6 runners since 2008, he also saddle the winner of this in 2004 & 2006, when race was run as a handicap.

Price


6 of 7 winners were priced under 5/1
5 of 7 favourites have won this since the race was upgraded to grade 1.
Favourites (5-3-8) have gained 5 wins in past 7 years, giving a level stakes profit of 1.65.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 8
- French bred
- Run 1 to 4 times this season
- Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
- Won last start
- Previously run in 10 to 19 chases (or unbeaten over fences)
- Has previously won a grade 1
- Won a chase worth over £70K
- Officially rated 166+
- Won Tingle Creek, Celebration and/or Game Spirit Chase in 2014
- Finished in first 3 in Maghull Novices’, Melling or Amlin Chase
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
- Priced shorter than 5/1 (favourite especially).