The Peter Marsh Chase, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 17th January, is a grade 2 limited handicap chase run over 3M 1F. The race is usually run on very testing ground and has been abandoned 4 times since the turn of the millennium.
Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2002:
8 of 10 winners were 8 to 10, though that age group represented almost 70% of total runners.
The one 11yo winner had previously won 2 grade 1 chases and the one 12yo winner had won a grade 3 chase on previous start and was placed in the previous running of the Peter Marsh.
Irish bred: 5-7-44
GB bred: 4-4-19
French bred: 1-6-27
9 of 10 winners were GB or Irish bred
horses carrying 10-12 or more: 4-10-40
horses carrying 10-11 or less: 6-7-53
3 of last 4 winners were allotted 11-5 or more.
Top Weight: 322522164PP (1-5-11)
5 of last 6 winners were ridden by claiming jockeys.
horses rated 140 or higher: 7-10-52
horses rated 139 or less: 3-7-41
8 of 11 winners (since 2000) were running off a mark of 140 or higher
horses running from out of handicap: 3-4-27
7 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 chase starts
8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on last completed chase start
10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 139+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts
10 of 10 winners had had their last start in December or January
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August
7 of 10 winners run 10 times or more over fences (1 exception had finished 4th in that season's Hennessy Gold Cup on second chase run & another was 4th in previous season's Arkle)
8 of 10 winners had won at least 3 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or fewer handicap chases
6 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (2 others had won over 2M 6F+)
4 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over CD & 3 others were making racecourse debut)
6 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or higher chase
8 of 10 had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had contested a class 1 chase that season
188Bet Handicap Chase winner (Toby Lerone): 1 (1-0-1)
Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase winner Broadway Buffalo): P (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners ran in Rowland Meyrick last time, finishing P3F31
Sue Smith (1-3-7) has a fine record, having saddled 2 winners & 3 places from 8 runners since 2000.
David Pipe (1-1-2) has seen his 2 runners finish 1st in 2010 & 3rd in 2012.
Venetia Williams (1-1-6) has gained 1 win & 1 place from her last 6 runners.
Donald McCain (1-0-3) trained Cloudy Lane to win this in 2009, his father trained the winner in 2006.
Alan King (0-0-3) Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-5) have seen their collective 8 runners all finish unplaced.
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) led or raced prominently
7 of 10 winners were priced shorter than 10/1, though 3 of last 6 winners were sent off at 16/1, 20/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (1-3-10) have won just one running since 2002, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.
Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 to 10 (or aged 11+ & has won a graded chase)
- Officially rated 140 or higher
- Finished in first 4 on last completed start in past 30 days
- Posted an RPR of 139+ in one or both of last 2 completed chase starts
- Run 2 to 5 times this season
- Has won a chase over 3M+
- Previously run in 10 or more chases
- Previously won at least 3 times over fences
- Run in 10 or fewer handicap chases
- Won a class 2 or higher chase
- Previously contested a graded chase (& contested a class 1 race this season)
- Had last start in the Rowland Meyrick Chase
- Respect horses ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance
- Trained by Sue Smith, Don McCain, David Pipe or Venetia Williams
- Tends to race prominently.