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    Info PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2015

    The Peter Marsh Chase, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 17th January, is a grade 2 limited handicap chase run over 3M 1F. The race is usually run on very testing ground and has been abandoned 4 times since the turn of the millennium.





    Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2002:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 0-0-1
    7yo: 0-4-13
    8yo: 5-4-22
    9yo: 2-6-27
    10yo: 1-1-16
    11yo: 1-0-6
    12yo+: 1-2-9

    8 of 10 winners were 8 to 10, though that age group represented almost 70% of total runners.
    The one 11yo winner had previously won 2 grade 1 chases and the one 12yo winner had won a grade 3 chase on previous start and was placed in the previous running of the Peter Marsh.

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 5-7-44
    GB bred: 4-4-19
    French bred: 1-6-27
    Other: 0-0-3
    9 of 10 winners were GB or Irish bred

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 10-12 or more: 4-10-40
    horses carrying 10-11 or less: 6-7-53
    3 of last 4 winners were allotted 11-5 or more.
    Top Weight: 322522164PP (1-5-11)
    5 of last 6 winners were ridden by claiming jockeys.

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 140 or higher: 7-10-52
    horses rated 139 or less: 3-7-41
    8 of 11 winners (since 2000) were running off a mark of 140 or higher
    horses running from out of handicap: 3-4-27

    Recent/Past Form


    7 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 chase starts
    8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on last completed chase start
    10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 139+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts
    10 of 10 winners had had their last start in December or January
    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August
    7 of 10 winners run 10 times or more over fences (1 exception had finished 4th in that season's Hennessy Gold Cup on second chase run & another was 4th in previous season's Arkle)
    8 of 10 winners had won at least 3 times over fences
    9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or fewer handicap chases
    6 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (2 others had won over 2M 6F+)
    4 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over CD & 3 others were making racecourse debut)
    6 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or higher chase
    8 of 10 had contested a graded chase
    7 of 10 winners had contested a class 1 chase that season

    Other Races


    188Bet Handicap Chase winner (Toby Lerone): 1 (1-0-1)
    Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase winner Broadway Buffalo): P (0-0-1)
    5 of 10 winners ran in Rowland Meyrick last time, finishing P3F31

    Trainers


    Sue Smith (1-3-7) has a fine record, having saddled 2 winners & 3 places from 8 runners since 2000.
    David Pipe (1-1-2) has seen his 2 runners finish 1st in 2010 & 3rd in 2012.
    Venetia Williams (1-1-6) has gained 1 win & 1 place from her last 6 runners.
    Donald McCain (1-0-3) trained Cloudy Lane to win this in 2009, his father trained the winner in 2006.
    Alan King (0-0-3) Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-5) have seen their collective 8 runners all finish unplaced.

    Racing Tactics


    7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) led or raced prominently



    Price


    7 of 10 winners were priced shorter than 10/1, though 3 of last 6 winners were sent off at 16/1, 20/1 & 33/1.
    Favourites (1-3-10) have won just one running since 2002, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 8 to 10 (or aged 11+ & has won a graded chase)
    - Officially rated 140 or higher
    - Finished in first 4 on last completed start in past 30 days
    - Posted an RPR of 139+ in one or both of last 2 completed chase starts
    - Run 2 to 5 times this season
    - Has won a chase over 3M+
    - Previously run in 10 or more chases
    - Previously won at least 3 times over fences
    - Run in 10 or fewer handicap chases
    - Won a class 2 or higher chase
    - Previously contested a graded chase (& contested a class 1 race this season)
    - Had last start in the Rowland Meyrick Chase
    - Respect horses ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance
    - Trained by Sue Smith, Don McCain, David Pipe or Venetia Williams
    - Tends to race prominently.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (13th January 2015), neilb (13th January 2015) 


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