BOYLESPORTS HURDLE TRENDS 2015

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The Boylesports (Handicap) Hurdle (formerly the Ladbrokes, Pierse and MCR Hurdle) takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 18th January and is one of the major handicap hurdles on the Irish national hunt calendar. Run over 2 miles for 4yos and upwards rated 0-150, unexposed hurdlers have fared best with the last 10 winners all having had less than 10 previous hurdles starts.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-6-65
6yo: 3-14-63
7yo: 2-2-59
8yo: 3-4-48
9yo: 0-1-18
10yo+: 0-3-20
10 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 8, though they did make up 86% of total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-11 or more: 0-9-70
horses carrying 10-10 or less: 10-21-203
The last 10 winners have all carried 10-10 or less and are especially favoured in softer ground.
Top Weight: 402000083B2 (0-4-11) – 3 of 4 top weights to make the frame were ridden by claimers.
horses carrying a penalty (0-1-16) have a particularly bad record, gaining just one place from 16 representatives, 11 of which were sent off 12/1 or below (3 were favourite or co-favourite).

Official Ratings


horses rated 127 or higher: 1-9-70
horses rated 116 to 126: 7-15-139
horses rated 115 or lower: 2-6-64
The last 10 winners were all officially rated 128 or lower.
The last 5 winners were officially rated 118 to 128.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (exception missed out on a place in a grade c h'cap hurdle by a short head on previous start)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ last time out (last 4 posted RPR of 127+)
10 of 10 winners had their last start at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Fairyhouse
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 hurdles (exception had yet to win over hurdles but had finished 2nd on last 3 starts)
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles


9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap hurdle (7 had yet to win one)
8 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers (one was a novice and the other was a 3rd season hurdler)

Other Races


Irish Daily Mail Christmas Novice Handicap Hurdle winner (Shemshal): 004 (0-1-3)
Profile Systems Kommerling Handicap Hurdle winner (Harvey Logan): 00 (0-0-2)
Go Racing In Kildare 2014 Membership Handicap Hurdle winner (Pairofbrowneyes): 007 (0-0-3)
Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle winner (Shantou Ed): 6070700 (0-0-7)
4 of 10 winners were placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting last time
3 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, finishing 365
2 of 10 winners ran in a 2M H'cap Hurdle at Punchestown Winter Festival in November, finishing 31
2 of 2 Jessica Harrington-trained winners finished 2nd in Paddy Power Games H'cap Hurdle at Leopardstown
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Roy Evans/Barry Geraghty Golf Classic H'cap Hurdle, finishing 53

Trainers


Willie Mullins (2-7-31) trained the winner in 2013, the first 2 in 2011 and trained 3 of the first 4 home in 2010. His 2 winners in past 10 years both had their previous start at Fairyhouse.
Jessica Harrington (2-0-13) has trained 2 of the last 10 winners. Both winners had finished 2nd in the Paddy Power Games H'cap Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival.
Elizabeth Doyle (1-0-3) and Robert Tyner (1-0-4) trained the winners in 2009 & 2007.
Tony Martin (0-4-10) trained the winner of this in 2003 and he has gained 4 places from his 10 runners since 2005.
Gordon Elliot (0-3-6) has done well in this, saddling 3 places from 6 runners, with one of his unplaced runners finishing 6th of 30 in 2012. He has filled runners-up spot in last 2 renewals.
Noel Meade (0-0-20), Dermot Weld (0-0-6) & Charlie Swan (0-0-5) have struggled in this race, failing to produce a single placed finisher from their collective 31 runners.

Price


9 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 16/1
The one big shock in this race was Penny’s Bill at 50/1 in 2009, when a slightly fortuitous winner over the favourite Psycho in 2nd.
Favourites (1-2-12) last won the race in 2005, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00 in past 10 years.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 to 8
- Won or placed last time (ideally at Leopardstown, Fairyhouse or Punchestown)
- Posted an RPR of 127+ last time out
- Run in past 35 days
- Run no more than 4 times this season
- Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
- Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 0 or 1)
- First or second season hurdler
- Carrying less than 10-12
- Officially rated 118 to 128
- Placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting
- Finished in first 5 in the Roy Evans/Barry Geraghty Golf Classic Handicap Hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in a 2M H'cap Hurdle at Punchestown Winter Festival
- Trained by Willie Mullins, Jessica Harrington, Gordon Elliot & Tony Martin
- Priced 16/1 or shorter.