THYESTES HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2015

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The Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase is one of the highlights on the Irish National Hunt calendar each year and takes place at Gowran Park on Thursday 22nd January. The race can often throw up clues for the Irish and Aintree Grand Nationals later in the season with Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde featuring amongst the winners since 2000, while last year’s winner, On His Own, almost followed up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. 7 of last 8 winners had contested the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, Tim Duggan Memorial at Limerick or Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-1
7yo: 1-4-20
8yo: 2-6-40
9yo: 4-11-47
10yo: 2-7-48
11yo+: 1-2-21
horses aged 7 to 9: 7-21-107
horses aged 10+: 3-9-60.
All 3 winners aged 10+ had won or placed in the race in previous 2 years.
Since 1990 there have only been three 6yo runners, 4/1 favourite fell in 1994, 25/1 unplaced in 1998 and 4/1 joint favourite fell in 2013.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-9 or more: 3-13-78
horses carrying 10-8 or less: 7-17-99
horses carrying less than 10-9 have won 7 of the last 10 runnings of this race. The 3 winners to carry 10-9+ to victory were Preists Leap in 2009 (won the race previous year), Siegemaster in 2011 (3rd the previous year) & On His Own in 2014 (won this in 2012).
Top Weight: 44F42010U9 (1-3-10)

Official Ratings


horses rated 130 or higher: 3-13-71
horses rated 129 or lower: 7-16-106
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 or lower, however in recent years the trends has pointed towards higher rated runners, with 7 of the last 8 winners being rated 124+.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had had a run since Christmas (exception was a previous winner of the race)
8 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last two completed starts
9 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles
7 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 11 chases (3 exceptions had run in 16-17 chases previously)
10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
6 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers (4 exceptions finished in first 3 in a previous renewal)
7 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Limerick Christmas meetings


8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 2/grade C or higher chase

Other Races


Previous year's winner (On His Own): 6109 (1-0-4)
Highest placed finisher from previous year's race: P2610907P (1-1-9)
Highest placed finisher from Tim Duggan Memorial H'cap Chase: 6P01270 (1-1-7)
Highest placed finisher from Paddy Power Chase to run in this: 923P3P3697 (0-4-10)
Boylesports Irish Grand National @Fairyhouse H'cap Chase winner (Sword Fish): 2 (0-1-1)
Leinster National winner (Gallant Oscar): 3P (0-1-2)
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 0038 (0-1-4)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H'cap Chase winner (My Murphy): 7 (0-0-1)
Punchestown Hospitality Beginners Chase winner (The Job Is Right): F (0-0-1)
Bobbyjo Chase winner (On His Own): 6 (0-0-1)
Previous season's Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Ten Up): 0F5P (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing FF8B
3 of 10 winners ran in Troytown, finishing 044
2 of 10 ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish National, finishing 7F

Trainers


Willie Mullins (3-6-25) has trained 5 winners since 2000 and has won 2 of the last 3 runnings with On His Own.
Tony Martin (1-2-5) won this in 2006 and see 4 of his 5 runners since 2005 make first 5.
Paul Gilligan (1-1-2) saddled Jadanli to finish 1st & 3rd in 2013 and 2012.
Robert Tyner (0-2-5) has saddled a placed finisher in 2 of the past 3 years.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-4) & Jim Dreaper (0-1-4) have each saddled the runner-up in past 2 runnings.
Noel Meade (0-0-9) has not had much luck in this, with his 17 runners since 2000 all finishing unplaced.

Running Style


2 of 10 winners led/made all
4 of 10 winners tracked leaders
3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division
1 of 10 winners were held up towards rear
The last 5 winners led or tracked leaders.

Price


No strong trends on the prices with 6 of the last 8 winners have gone off between 10/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (1-5-12) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 year, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75. Last winning favourite was in 2006.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 to 9 (or won/placed in a previous Thyestes)
- Carrying 10-9 or less (or won/placed in a previous Thyestes)
- Officially rated 124 to 135
- Run since Christmas (ideally at Limerick or Leopardstown Festivals)
- Won or placed on one or both of last 2 completed chase starts
- Has won over 3M+
- Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
- First or second season chaser (or placed in a previous Thyestes)
- Previously won or placed in a Grade C or higher chase
- Ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial or Paddy Power Chase in December
- Placed in the Troytown Chase
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Willie Mullins, Paul Gilligan, Tony Martin or Robert Tyner.